TFM Midday Update 4-9-2025

CORN

Driven by the announcement of retaliatory tariffs from China this morning, corn trade remains mixed by midday.
Corn exports remain strong, even in the absence of purchases from China. The steady export pace suggests that the USDA may raise its export forecast once again.
Dr. Cordonnier kept his Brazil and Argentina corn estimates unchanged, noting that the southern half of Brazil’s safrinha crop will begin pollinating in late April to early May, with rainfall being critical during this period.
Ethanol production dropped to a 10-week low of 300 million gallons, down from 312 million the previous week and 3% lower than the YA. A total of 102 million bushels were used in the production process.

Soybean futures are trading mixed at midday, holding fairly steady after China’s tariff announcement. China is imposing an 84% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods. While soybean meal prices are posting gains, soybean oil is experiencing losses.
The U.S.-China trade war presents significant challenges to the soybean market, as the U.S. is the second-largest soybean exporter and China is the world’s leading soybean importer.
Strong Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans has pushed Brazil’s soybean premiums higher, making U.S. soybeans more competitive in the market. Additionally, the U.S. dollar is falling this morning and may be resuming its downward trend.
USDA confirms the sale of 198,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to an unknown destination for 24/25.

Wheat markets trade mixed at midday, influenced by a weakening U.S. dollar and growing weather concerns for the U.S. wheat crop, including cool temperatures, flooding, and dryness.
Wheat conditions in the U.S. are gradually deteriorating, with the area affected by drought continuing to expand.
Wheat remains largely unaffected by the tariff conflict with China, as China has made no wheat purchases this year, while Canada and Mexico continue to be exempt from tariffs.
U.S. wheat remains competitive in global markets, with soft red wheat priced lower than French wheat and hard winter wheat priced below Russian wheat.

Lauren VandenLangenberg