TFM Midday Update 5-10-2022

CORN

Jul corn up 1 @ 7.73
The USDA’s Crop Progress report showed 22% of corn planted as of May 8, which is well below the 5-year average of 50%
Crop progress numbers should make a significant jump by next week’s report with warmer weather and a mostly dry forecast in the Midwest improving planting conditions
The Northern Plains will see a challenge with wet conditions and more rain forecast
With Brazil and Argentina still experiencing dryness the US will likely be the world’s main source of corn in the year ahead and supplies could get tight

Jul soybeans up 7 @ 15.92
Soybeans are pushing back higher this morning after yesterday’s sharp drop
The USDA’s crop progress report showed 12% of soybeans planted as of May 8 below the five-year average of 24%
Soybean demand overall remains strong, and we will likely see the USDA estimate the lowest ending stocks of US soybeans in six years this Thursday
Domestic demand for meal has fallen but strong demand for soybean oil is driving the crush

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Jul wheat up 3 @ 10.96, Jul KC up 8 @ 11.72, & Jul MNPLS up 9 @ 12.16
The USDA rated 29% of winter wheat as good to excellent which is up from 27% last week but still the lowest rating since the drought of 1989
USDA reports show 27% of spring wheat crop planted down from the 5-year average of 47%
North Dakota is only 8% planted with more rain forecast this week
Weather is the main issue right now affecting both the North and Southwestern Plains

Jun LC down 0.125 @ 133.425 & May FC down 0.475 @ 159.325
Live cattle were lower again yesterday alongside lower corn, yet recovered significantly for a green close in Jun
All live cattle contracts are down today with anticipation of lower cash as the packer is well bought for now
Feeders have slipped lower with a rise in grains, alongside a record number of cattle on feed
Choice cuts up 3.85 and select down 1.93
Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 5/9: up 0.70 @ 156.21

Jun hogs up 0.250 @ 101.525 & Jun pork down 0.325 @ 107.975
Front month hogs are leading the charge higher with deferred contracts down indicating the packer’s need for hogs now
Higher cash is supporting futures
Potential ASF spread in Rome must be watched as fears could drive prices higher
National Direct Afternoon report rose 4.85
Hog slaughter projected at 479K
CME Lean Hog Index for 5/10: up 0.18 @ 101.09

Amanda Brill