TFM Midday Update 5-13-2022


  • Jul corn down 10 @ 7.81
  • Corn is lower today after yesterday’s report showing higher than expected estimates of world ending stocks for 21/22 at 309.39 mmt
  • There were unexpected production increases in Egypt, Nigeria, and Pakistan
  • US farm structures were damaged last night by high winds upwards of 100mph from Kansas to Wisconsin
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 26% of corn has been harvested and 16% rated good to excellent, down from 19% last week


  • Jul soybeans up 23 @ 16.37
  • Soybeans are higher this morning with support from yesterday’s USDA report estimating old crop ending stocks will total 235 mb at the end of August, the lowest surplus in six years
  • Soybean meal is working higher along with slight gains in soybean oil which are providing more support
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 65% of soybeans have been harvested and only 10% is rated good to excellent
  • Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 21/22 marketing year

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  • Jul wheat down 9 @ 11.71, Jul KC down 2 @ 12.68, & Jul MNPLS down 2 @ 13.15
  • Wheat is lower this morning likely due to some profit taking after yesterday’s move higher following a friendly USDA report
  • The USDA’s 590 mb estimate of new HRW crop was especially bullish for KC wheat
  • While Ukraine is still estimated to export 367 mb of wheat, there are continued concerns about the world’s wheat supply with the ongoing conflict
  • North Dakota and Minnesota are still dealing with weather troubles for planting spring wheat with high winds last night and more rain predicted in the seven-day forecast


  • Jun LC up 0.250 @ 133.025 & May FC up 1.125 @ 158.000
  • June live cattle closed at their lowest level since Oct 6, 2021, but are higher on today’s open
  • Live cattle and feeders are both in oversold territory, but a boost from cash or an increase in demand may allow potential to the upside
  • Lower corn is giving a boost to feeders this morning
  • The packer remains well bought and will continue to run plants through Saturdays to get through their supply
  • Choice cuts up 2.12 and select up 2.18
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 5/12: up 0.37 @ 156.61


  • Jun hogs up 2.750 @ 100.225 & Jun pork cutout up 2.100 @ 105.900
  • Hogs are higher this morning alongside a higher cutout despite falling cash
  • The head and shoulders formation in June is nearing completion and with hogs oversold there should be some upside potential
  • Hogs are undervalued here and any increase in demand from China would be bullish
  • National Direct Afternoon report has cash down 1.93
  • Hog slaughter projected at 453K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 5/13: down 0.22 @ 101.04


Amanda Brill

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