TFM Midday Update 5-13-2022

CORN

Jul corn down 10 @ 7.81
Corn is lower today after yesterday’s report showing higher than expected estimates of world ending stocks for 21/22 at 309.39 mmt
There were unexpected production increases in Egypt, Nigeria, and Pakistan
US farm structures were damaged last night by high winds upwards of 100mph from Kansas to Wisconsin
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 26% of corn has been harvested and 16% rated good to excellent, down from 19% last week

Jul soybeans up 23 @ 16.37
Soybeans are higher this morning with support from yesterday’s USDA report estimating old crop ending stocks will total 235 mb at the end of August, the lowest surplus in six years
Soybean meal is working higher along with slight gains in soybean oil which are providing more support
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 65% of soybeans have been harvested and only 10% is rated good to excellent
Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 21/22 marketing year

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Jul wheat down 9 @ 11.71, Jul KC down 2 @ 12.68, & Jul MNPLS down 2 @ 13.15
Wheat is lower this morning likely due to some profit taking after yesterday’s move higher following a friendly USDA report
The USDA’s 590 mb estimate of new HRW crop was especially bullish for KC wheat
While Ukraine is still estimated to export 367 mb of wheat, there are continued concerns about the world’s wheat supply with the ongoing conflict
North Dakota and Minnesota are still dealing with weather troubles for planting spring wheat with high winds last night and more rain predicted in the seven-day forecast

Jun LC up 0.250 @ 133.025 & May FC up 1.125 @ 158.000
June live cattle closed at their lowest level since Oct 6, 2021, but are higher on today’s open
Live cattle and feeders are both in oversold territory, but a boost from cash or an increase in demand may allow potential to the upside
Lower corn is giving a boost to feeders this morning
The packer remains well bought and will continue to run plants through Saturdays to get through their supply
Choice cuts up 2.12 and select up 2.18
Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 5/12: up 0.37 @ 156.61

Jun hogs up 2.750 @ 100.225 & Jun pork cutout up 2.100 @ 105.900
Hogs are higher this morning alongside a higher cutout despite falling cash
The head and shoulders formation in June is nearing completion and with hogs oversold there should be some upside potential
Hogs are undervalued here and any increase in demand from China would be bullish
National Direct Afternoon report has cash down 1.93
Hog slaughter projected at 453K
CME Lean Hog Index for 5/13: down 0.22 @ 101.04

Amanda Brill