TFM Midday Update 5-13-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher near midday with support from Friday’s USDA report and planting delays. July futures are trading at the highest levels since the beginning of January and are 11 cents away from the 200-day moving average which is at 484.
In Argentina, the leaf hopper bugs, spreading disease throughout the corn crop, have reportedly done over 2 billion dollars’ worth of damage. New production estimates have lowered guesses to 47.5 mmt, which would be down a fifth from the original production estimate of 59 mmt.
Friday’s USDA report showed old crop ending stocks falling by 100 mb due to increases in export and ethanol demand. New crop ending stocks were pegged at 2.102 billion bushels using a baseline yield of 181.0 bpa, and both Argentine and Brazilian production were lowered slightly.

Soybeans are trading higher today with the majority of gains in the new crop months. November futures have a gap on their chart at 1244 ½ which is around 33 cents away at this point. Soybean meal is unchanged, and soybean oil is higher, offering support to soybeans.
Friday’s WASDE report was basically neutral for soybeans, but they got a boost from sharply higher soybean oil and friendly numbers for corn and wheat. Once again, the USDA was very conservative with adjusting Brazilian production and only lowered it by 1 mmt. CONAB maintains a much lower estimate that will be updated today.
The flooding in Brazil has severely damaged the soybeans in the southern regions that were unable to be harvested, and StoneX has reduced their estimate for Brazilian production by 3 mmt to 147.8 mmt which is well below the USDA’s estimate of 154 mmt.

All three wheat classes are trading sharply higher again today and have reached their highest prices since August of last year as frosts in Russia potentially damage the wheat crop and traders react to Friday’s friendly USDA report.
Friday’s WASDE report showed that old crop ending stocks fell slightly due to an increase in exports, that new crop stocks would be smaller than expected due to lower acreage, and lower world ending stocks due to higher demand and trade which offset the higher production estimate.
In India, wheat stocks in government warehouses are reportedly at a 16-year low after making record domestic sales in order to lower local prices. This creates the possibility that India may need to import wheat at some point which it rarely needs to do.

Amanda Brill