TFM Midday Update 5-16-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower today following poor export sales, and the July contract is trading back down at the 100-day moving average and has fallen over 18 cents since Tuesday’s high. There are rains expected over the next 10 days, but planting progress has improved in some areas.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 29.2 mb of corn sales for the 23/24 marketing year and an increase of 5.0 mb for 24/25. This was down 17% from last week and 14% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of 37.5 mb were below the 40.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimate of 2.150 billion bushels in 23/24. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan.

Soybeans are lower today and have received pressure from both a poor export sales report today as well as a disappointing NOPA crush report yesterday, which saw crush significantly below average trade estimates. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher today.
Today’s export sales report for soybeans were poor at 9.8 mb in sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.9 mb for 24/25. This was down 38% from last week and down 31% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments for soybeans of 16.3 mb were above the 12.6 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 1.700 billion bushels. Total sales commitments are down 16% from a year ago. Primary destinations were to Egypt, China, and Indonesia.

Wheat is mixed today with Chicago trading lower but KC and Minneapolis wheat slightly higher. Wheat is performing better than both corn and soybeans today as trade worries about Russian production and the recent frosts.
Today’s export sales report was a bit more friendly for wheat, showing an increase of 2.9 mb of sales for 23/24 and an increase of 11.2 mb for 24/25. This was up 91% from the previous week and up significantly from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of 16.5 mb were just above the 16.3 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 720 mb for 23/24. Primary destinations were to China, Mexico, and South Korea.

Amanda Brill