TFM Midday Update 5-22-2023

CORN

Corn is continuing to push higher with July leading the way after a poor showing last week that saw the July contract losing 30 cents on the week. Chinese cancellations and poor exports were to blame.
While Brazil is expected to have a record corn crop at 130 mmt, Argentina’s crop keeps looking worse, and while the USDA is still estimating production at 37 mmt, most analysts are projecting closer to 30 mmt.
With Chinese cancellations of US corn, the USDA will likely need to lower their yearly corn exports in the next WASDE. China’s corn imports from the US in April were under 54,000 mt which compares to 1.51 million mt a year ago.
There was an announced corn tender by Taiwan’s MFIG for 65,000 mt of optional corn.

Soybeans are moving sharply higher and are on track to recover all of the losses from Friday. Both soybean oil and meal are higher along with crude oil.
Palm oil was down 1.52% today, which put some early pressure on soybean oil, but both soy products have recovered as those markets were getting oversold.
China logged imports from Brazil that were down 16% from a year ago at just 5.4 mmt which causes some concern about China’s economy and their demand.
Brazil’s soybean crop is harvested and now Safras and Mercado raised their production estimates to 155.7 mmt vs the USDA’s 155 mmt.

Wheat is mixed today with Chicago and KC higher but Minn struggling. The Kansas HRW wheat tour results are supportive of prices.
The Kansas wheat tour is expecting the lowest production in 66 years, and issues at Ukraine’s largest port with Russians disrupting shipments are bullish factors today.
Another vessel of Polish wheat reportedly is headed to Florida and would be the third cargo imported from Europe by millers in Florida.
Russian wheat production is being estimated higher by Sov Econ to 88 mmt, up 1.2 mmt. Russian FOB values are extremely cheap and are said to be $250 mt into August.

Amanda Brill