TFM Midday Update 5-23-2023

CORN

Corn is higher again today after resistance was found at the 5-dollar mark in December, causing funds to cover some shorts and spur buying.
Planting progress jumped ahead again to 81% complete vs 65% last week. Emergence is now at 52% compared to 30% last week.
There is some talk of a “flash drought” in the heart of the Corn Belt that is forecasting lack of rain for the next 10 days.
July corn in Brazil is trading lower today and is at the equivalent of $4.58 a bushel on the Bovespa exchange as they continue receiving good moisture.

Soybeans are trading lower along with both soybean meal and oil after yesterday’s rally. Soybean oil is leading the way lower despite higher crude prices as palm oil prices fall.
The USDA reported that 66% of the soybean crop has been planted and 36% has emerged. Planting is 10 percentage points ahead of where it was in 2016, which was the year the US recorded the highest soybean yield.
Illinois and Iowa are leading the way at 85% and 84% planted, while North Dakota is only 20% planted due to wet field conditions.
The anticipation of the US having a record crop, along with Brazil already recording a record crop, is pressuring soy prices heavily and will likely result in a large jump in ending stocks.

Wheat is trading higher on tensions between Russia and Ukraine that may disrupt trade further along with the poor wheat crop in Kansas.
Crop progress reported that 61% of winter wheat was headed, which is on par with its usual pace, and 31% is rated good to excellent, which was a 2% improvement from last week. In Kansas, the poor to very poor rating increased by 1% to 69%.
There have been reports of wheat being imported into the US from Europe to take advantage of the cheaper prices which has added to bearish sentiment.
The largest port in Ukraine, Pivdennyi, has not been receiving vessels as Russia has not been allowing it despite the extension of the agreement. It is not yet known why, but it is disrupting exports.

Amanda Brill