TFM Midday Update 5-23-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Monday, May 27, in Observance of Memorial Day

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 35.9 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 12.0 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 57.0 mb surpassed the 40.1 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 2.150 bb.
According to private Brazilian form AgroConsult, the safrinha corn crop is estimated at 96.7 mmt, which would be down 10.5% from last year. This is said to be due to lower acreage and a yield drop of 7%.
Ethanol production increased to 300 million gallons last week, which is a six-week high. However, this is still below the pace needed to reach the USDA’s usage forecast of 5.45 bb.
The current weather forecast for Brazil shows some rains coming to the safrinha corn crop in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul. These are some of the areas that have been drier, so this may delay harvest of that crop.

The USDA reported an increase of 10.3 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 2.4 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 9.5 mb fell below the 12.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 1.700 bb.
July soybeans took out the recent (May 7) high earlier today before fading back. This may indicate that the 1260 level is relatively strong resistance.
Traders are becoming more concerned with the slow pace of new crop export commitments for soybeans (and corn too). And the fact that China has yet to purchase, and new crop US soybeans is worrisome. The unconfirmed rumors that China has purchased US soybeans from the PNW continue to swirl, but these are said to be for summer delivery.
Both crude oil and palm oil are higher this morning, but despite this, soybean oil is under pressure and not finding much support.

The USDA reported an increase of 0.7 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 8.3 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 7.2 mb fell below the 16.2 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 720 mb.
The second day of the Illinois wheat crop tour found an average yield of about 105 bpa, which is above last year’s 97 bpa. The USDA’s estimate of Illinois yield is currently 83 bpa, which would be down from last year’s record of 87 bpa.
Growing drought across southern Russia, eastern Ukraine, and western Kazakhstan is becoming more of a concern for wheat production in those regions. There is talk that Russian wheat yields may be down 17-20%.
Tunisia is reported to have purchased 100,000 mt of soft milling wheat in their tender, and Jordan will again be tendering for 120,000 mt of soft wheat. Their last tender fell through, as they cited prices being too high.

Brandon Doherty