TFM Midday Update 5-4-2023

CORN

The USDA reported net cancellations of 12.4 mb of corn export sales for 22/23, and an increase of 4.8 mb for 23/24.
Yesterday the market had a knee jerk reaction to news that there was an attempted drone strike on the Kremlin. Grains did not follow through overnight, with corn, soybeans, and wheat all in the red to start the morning. At midday, however, wheat is turning positive.
The Fed did raise interest rates one quarter percent yesterday. But Chairman Powell’s comments about a pause in increasing rates could offer support to financial and commodity markets.
Warming temperatures this week should allow for more favorable planting conditions across much of the Midwest.

The USDA reported an increase of 10.6 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, and an increase of 2.5 mb for 23/24.
Brazil soybeans are cheaper than US, especially to China. This could further reduce US export demand.
Old crop soybean supply may be limited this summer, which should lend some support to the market.
There is renewed concern about the banking crisis, with the sharp drop in Pac West share price. This could weigh on financial markets and spill over into commodities.
Based on July futures, the crush premium for soybeans is about $1.88 per bushel.

The USDA reported an increase of 7.8 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 10.3 mb for 23/24.
Russia said they shot down the drone attack yesterday, but the increase in tensions suggest that there will not be an extension of the Black Sea export deal on May 18.
Speculators are said to hold short positions of SRW wheat that amount to over 130,000 contracts.
The Kansas winter wheat crop tour will be May 15-18. It is likely to show poor conditions.
A Turkish bank has agreed to process payments for Russian exports, but a signed agreement is needed.

Brandon Doherty