TFM Midday Update 5-9-2025

CORN

Corn continues to post gains at midday as traders look to reduce risk ahead of this weekend’s China talks and Monday’s USDA Supply and Demand report.
USDA reported 288,000 tons of corn sold to Mexico, 95,100 tons for the 24/25 year and 192,900 tons for the 25/26 year.
China has signed a deal with Argentine exporters to purchase corn, as it seeks alternative suppliers to the U.S.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported a 4% increase in Argentina’s corn rated in good/excellent condition, now at 42%.
U.S. corn area under drought was unchanged at 20% compared to 14% at this time last year.

Soybean markets continued to trade higher at midday, building on Thursday’s gains amid optimism that this weekend’s meeting with China could help de-escalate the ongoing tariff dispute. The entire soy complex is posting gains.
USDA reported another soybean sale to Pakistan of 120,000 tons for the 25/26 year.
Going into the weekend, any signs toward a trade agreement with the U.S. and China could encourage buyers back into the soy complex, however any deal that guarantees commitments from China to buy U.S. soybeans is not likely.
The soybean market will be most likely limited to any rally attempt as exports slow and a record soybean harvest out of South America continues.

Wheat prices turned red at midday as weather concerns reemerged, with dryness concerns once again affecting parts of the U.S., and drought persisting in other major wheat-producing regions.
The share of U.S. winter wheat under drought conditions fell by 1% to 22%, down from 28% at this time last year. Dry weather is expected to persist across the Grain Plains into next week, with some relief anticipated in the Dakotas by late next week.
Drought conditions are forecast to expand across the northern half of Europe’s wheat-growing regions through the end of the month. In China, dry weather is also expected to persist in the northern and northwestern wheat areas for at least the next 10 days.
With U.S.-China trade negotiations expected this weekend, any potential deal could support U.S. wheat markets, as China is facing a significant shortfall in its domestic wheat production.

Lauren VandenLangenberg