TFM Midday Update 6-12-2023

CORN

Over the weekend, rainfall in the Midwest was scattered and spotty. Additionally, the week one weather forecast shows a few light showers in the Midwest with temperatures below normal. The second week shows better chances for rain and temperatures warming up.
Outside markets could be an influence this week. The Fed will come out with their decision on interest rates, and whether or not they will take a pause, or issue another increase.
Brazil is experiencing some cold temperatures with more in the forecast, which could impact their later planted corn crop.
Ag Resource has reportedly dropped their US corn yield projection to 177 bpa. The USDA is using a yield of 181.5 bpa.

At midday, crude oil is down over $3 per barrel. This is likely weighing on soybean oil and limiting upside price movement in soybeans.
China has been accused of shipping “fake” biodiesel to secure European grants. This could increase US soybean oil demand from Europe if they reduce imports from China.
According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, stocks of palm oil at the end of May were up 13% from the previous month.
Expectations for this afternoon’s Crop Progress report are to show a decline in the good to excellent rating for soybeans (and corn).
On Friday’s report, the USDA lowered Argentina’s soybean crop by 2 mmt to 25 mmt. Argentina’s exchanges, however, are 3 mmt lower at 22 mmt.

Funds are reported to be net short 122,280 contracts of Chicago wheat.
Friday’s USDA report showed higher US HRW wheat production on the order of 11 mb. This is interesting, considering the recent challenges faced in the US southern Plains, but is attributed to the recent rains in Texas and Oklahoma.
Dryness in Spain and northern France could mean lower wheat crops there. One group is estimating a decrease of European wheat production by 2.1 mmt for this reason. This would bring the European wheat crop to 142.4 mmt.
Alberta, Canada received some rain this weekend, but most of the Canadian prairies remain too dry.
The USDA raised their estimate of global wheat ending stocks on Friday’s report. This adds to pressure on US futures and may be one reason why wheat is trading mixed to lower at midday.

Brandon Doherty