TFM Midday Update 6-13-2024

CORN

CONAB increased their estimate of Brazil’s corn production from 111.6 mmt to 114.1 mmt. However, this remains about 8 mmt below the USDA’s estimate on yesterday’s WASDE report.
The USDA reported an increase of 41.6 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 2.7 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 49.2 mb exceeded the 40.4 mb pace needed per week to reach the 23/24 export goal of 2.150 bb.
December corn broke back above the 100-day moving average (472-1/4) today. It has closed below this moving average for the last two weeks, so this may be a sign of a bullish recovery. The next upside resistance is not far away however, with the 21, 40, and 50-day moving averages converged near the 475 to 476 area.
Talk of worsening drought in Mexico could lead to them taking more corn from the US, despite the current dispute on GMO imports.

CONAB slightly lowered their estimate of Brazil’s soybean production, from 147.78 mmt to 147.35 mmt. This is still about 6 mmt lower than the USDA’s estimate on yesterday’s WASDE report.
The USDA reported an increase of 13.9 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.1 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 7.9 mb fell below the 13.2 mb pace needed per week to reach the 23/24 export goal of 1.700 bb.
Private exporters reported sales of 120,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.
Soybean oil is trading lower this morning, despite reports that India’s palm oil imports increased by 11.6% in May, when compared with the month prior. This doesn’t appear to be affecting soybean futures much, however, as they are currently leading the grain complex higher.

On yesterday’s monthly supply and demand report, the USA lowered world wheat production by 7.4 mmt, with 5 mmt of that being a reduction in Russia. There were also cuts to Ukrainian and EU production. This may provide longer-term support to the wheat market.
The USDA reported an increase of 8.2 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 0.8 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 9.6 mb fell below the 15.4 mb pace needed per week to reach the 24/25 export goal of 800 mb.
Paris milling wheat futures are slightly higher at midday. With a chart gap above the market that may be filled over time, and support holding at the 50-day moving average so far, there may be room for prices to recover and give a boost to the US market. However, this may require more friendly news first.
In their estimate, Strategie Grains reduced the European Union soft wheat crop to 121.8 mmt, which was a reduction of 1.7 mmt from a month ago. This may also provide some bullish support to US wheat prices.

Brandon Doherty