TFM Midday Update 6-14-2023

CORN

The EU weather model has turned a little bit more wet, offering some resistance to the grain complex. However, parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana still look mostly dry on that model.
At today’s FOMC meeting the Fed may raise interest rates by 25 basis points. There is some speculation that they will pause the rate increase, however, especially after CPI data showed some easing of inflation.
Yesterday, December corn rallied but found resistance at the 100-day moving average. Currently at midday it is trading below that average, which is around 5.56.
There is reportedly another frost risk for Brazil, but so far there is no indication of harm to their corn crop. They are still looking for record corn production at this time.

Soybean export premiums in Brazil continue to be on the decline. As long as they have enough supply, this may reduce the amount of US soybeans sold.
China may issue a stimulus package to help their economy. This offers some hope that their economy will improve and help commodity prices. It remains to be seen if this is just a “band-aid” to cover bigger issues, though.
July soybean oil gained 1.45 cents yesterday, with support from higher crude oil, as well as world vegetable oils.
July soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange are around the equivalent of $15.45 per bushel (and near a 1-month high).

This year’s US winter wheat harvest may be one of the smallest in 50 years due to poor growing conditions in the southern Plains.
Dry conditions in western Canada’s wheat growing regions may get some relief with chances of rain for Alberta and Saskatchewan in the coming days.
Low Russian export prices are pressuring the wheat complex, and the EU is also exporting record amounts of wheat, offering resistance as well.
Soil moisture in Argentina is not optimal, and frost / freezing conditions over the next few days could slow germination for their winter wheat.

Brandon Doherty