TFM Midday Update 6-15-2026

CORN

Corn futures are firming to start the week with July corn futures up 3-1/2 at 416-1/4 while December futures are up 3 at 443-1/4.
Corn futures spent much of Sunday night’s session under pressure following reports that the U.S. and Iran are expected to sign a 60-day interim peace agreement later this week. The prospect of easing geopolitical tensions pressured crude oil prices to two-month lows, which in turn limited support for the broader commodity sector, including grains.
Corn is finding modest support to start the week, but favorable growing conditions remain the dominant market driver. Traders will be closely monitoring rainfall totals in already saturated areas, where excessive moisture could become one of the few near-term weather concerns for an otherwise promising crop.

Soybeans are bouncing higher to start the week with July soybeans up 4 cents at 1118 while new crop November futures are 3 higher at 1135.
Managed money was a significant seller across the soybean complex, liquidating more than 165,000 combined contracts of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures and options.
The seasonal window for Chinese purchases of new-crop U.S. soybeans typically begins in July and August. Following trade discussions between President Trump and President Xi earlier this year, traders will be closely monitoring export sales reports for signs that China is returning to more typical buying patterns after several years of inconsistent purchasing activity and shifting trade flows.

Wheat futures opened the week mixed, with the winter wheat markets posting modest gains while Minneapolis spring wheat trades slightly lower. July Chicago wheat is currently up 4 cents at 588 while July KC wheat is up 5 at 639-1/2. July spring wheat is down 4 currently trading at 614.
Record world wheat supplies remain a major headwind for U.S. wheat prices, limiting the market’s ability to sustain rallies despite tightening U.S. production prospects. Looking further ahead, traders are monitoring a strengthening La Niña pattern that could negatively impact wheat production in both Argentina and Australia later in the year, potentially tightening global supplies for the 2026/27 marketing year.
Managed money increased its net-short position in Chicago wheat by nearly 25,000 contracts last week, bringing its total short position to more than 77,000 contracts. The growing bearish fund position reflects confidence in the current global supply outlook, although such a large short position could also create the potential for short-covering rallies if market sentiment shifts.

Keegan Madigan