TFM Midday Update 6-17-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed Wednesday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

CORN

There is a contrast in weather between the eastern and western corn belt. The eastern areas have temperatures in the mid-90s into this weekend, while areas of Nebraska, Minnesota, and western Iowa should be cooler. Additionally, those western areas are too wet, and have 3-5 more inches of rain forecast over the next week or so.
According to Friday’s CFTC data, as of June 11, managed funds kept their net short corn position relatively unchanged at 212,279 contracts. This is in contrast to wheat and soybeans which saw their short positions grow.
This afternoon’s crop progress report is expected to show a decline of 2%-3% in the good to excellent rating of the corn crop. Despite initial ratings being historically high, there are definitely trouble spots throughout the Midwest; some areas are too hot and dry, while others have had far too much rain.
China’s Bureau of Statistics is expecting a bumper grain harvest in China, however, this is despite talk that there is drought and too much heat in the northern growing regions that may curb yields.

Soybean futures are sharply lower at midday, and without a lot of fresh news to drive this, it may be a technical selloff. Soybean products are also trading lower, which is not helping soybean futures. There is no influence from palm oil today, as those markets are closed for holiday.
NOPA crush data will be released at 11 AM central, with expectations for May crush to come in at 178 mb. This would break the record set last year at 177.9 mb.
Despite last week’s announced sales of soybeans to China, they were for old crop. So far there have still been zero sales of US new crop soybeans to China, which is adding bearish pressure. With that said, there are rumors that China is looking for US offers for the August – September timeframe.

Paris milling wheat futures posted another gap lower on charts this morning, with no signs of a turnaround (at the time of writing). This bearish influence is also pressuring the US wheat market.
US HRW wheat harvest is expected to have reached 25%-27% complete as of Sunday, and will likely be confirmed in this afternoon’s crop progress report. With that crop’s yields better than expected so far, harvest pressure is weighing on prices.
On a bullish note, India may still need to import wheat, especially due to the fact that their monsoon rains are said to be 20% less than normal in terms of coverage. India’s domestic wheat prices are also said to have hit a seven month high, around the equivalent of $8.50 per bushel.

Brandon Doherty