TFM Midday Update 6-18-20

CORN

  • July up 0.025 @ 3.325, September up 0.0175 @ 3.3675, December up 0.0125 @ 3.44
  • China is releasing corn from state reserves
  • Still, China corn prices are at highest prices since 2015
  • Rain totals and distribution still unclear for this weekend
  • US sold 357,800 tonnes of corn for the week ending June 11, down 46% from last week and down 45% from previous 4-week average
  • July corn recovered yesterday to close above its 10-day moving average support level, and has held so far today
  • Uptrend still intact
  • Funds bought about 6,000 contracts yesterday

SOYBEANS

  • July up 0.035 @ 8.7475, August up 0.0275 @ 8.745, November up 0.02 @ 8.785
  • Bounce off yesterday’s lows suggests active commercial buying
  • Concerns about crop conditions in the west
  • Strong China demand
  • US sold 538,100 tonnes of soybeans for the week ending June 11, down 46% from last week and down 36% from the previous 4-week average
  • July beans trading above the 100-day moving average for the second session in a row
  • A close above the 100-day would be the first since January 17
  • Overbought stochastics
  • Funds bought about 6,000 contracts yesterday

WHEAT

  • July CHI down 0.02 @ 4.8675, July KC up 0.0025 @ 4.3275, July MPLS up 0.055 @ 5.2575
  • Egypt is tending for wheat today, Russia currently has lowest offer
  • Declining spring wheat conditions in North Dakota, forecasts for northern Plains look hot and dry for the next two weeks
  • US sold 504,800 tonnes of wheat for the week ending June 11
  • CHI wheat futures are extending their recent downtrend further into oversold territory
  • KC futures are trying to consolidate near recent lows
  • Spring wheat futures testing overhead resistance at the upper Bollinger Band level
  • Funds sold about 6,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday

CATTLE

  • June lives down 0.25 @ 96.25, August down 0.80 @ 96.05, October down 0.62 @ 99.20
  • August feeders down 0.80 @ 132.77, September feeders down 1.05 @ 133.90
  • Choppy cash trade so far this week
  • Beef values collapsing below prices from the same time last year
  • August lives have fallen back below the 10-day moving average support level
  • August feeders tested their 100-day moving average resistance level but have fallen back below the 10 and 20-day moving average support levels

HOGS

  • July down 0.20 @ 49.45, August down 0.32 @ 52.85, October down 0.37 @ 50.85
  • Cash trend is still lower, pork values trying to stabilize
  • Average weights are down for the fifth straight week
  • July and August hogs are at session highs
  • Stochastics are still oversold
  • Momentum lower appears to be waning

Author

Bryan Doherty

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