TFM Midday Update 6-23-20

CORN

July down 0.0175 @ 3.2625, September down 0.03 @ 3.30, December down 0.045 @ 3.375
Bearish weather over the weekend and bearish weather forecasts
G/EX conditions @ 72% vs 71% last week
China corn imports in May were down 14.7% from last May, but cumulative corn imports are up 15.9% from last year
July traded as low overnight as 3.2125 but has bounced back to very slight losses
Trend may have turned lower

July up 0.0025 @ 8.765, August down 0.01 @ 8.74, November down 0.0325 @ 8.76
Expectations for higher planted acreage on next week’s report
G/EX ratings came down to 70% vs 72% last week
Conflicting opinions on US-China trade relations
US dollar sharply lower, Brazilian real is higher
July traded as low overnight as 8.65 but quickly attracted buyers
Overbought stochastics

July CHI up 0.0225 @ 4.8725, July KC up 0.035 @ 4.3475, July MPLS down 0.0425 @ 5.145
Winter wheat conditions increased to 52% G/EX vs 50% last week, harvest at 29% vs 13% for the same week last year
Spring wheat G/EX ratings at 75% vs 81% last week
Russia expected to produce their 2nd largest crop ever this year
Winter wheat futures still consolidating near lows for the move
KC futures trying to make a bullish key reversal to change the technical trend
Spring wheat futures breaking back below recent consolidation

June lives up 0.25 @ 94.65, August lives up 2.50 @ 97.62, October lives up 1.75 @ 100.32
August feeders up 3.00 @ 134.75, September lives up 2.77 @ 135.85
Beef market trying to stabilize but cash cattle trend is still lower
Heavy weights are keeping production heavier than last year despite lower daily slaughter
Potential trade disruptions with China
August lives are trading above the 100-day moving average resistance for the first time since May 29
Trend may turn higher with a close above that resistance

July up 0.25 @ 47.07, August up 1.15 @ 52.25, October up 0.75 @ 50.65
Cash index still moving lower
Exports to China may slow considerably if China tightens restrictions due to Covid
Frozen pork supplies at lowest levels since August of 2011
August hogs are trying to stabilize near contract lows

Bryan Doherty