TFM Midday Update 6-23-20

CORN

  • July down 0.0175 @ 3.2625, September down 0.03 @ 3.30, December down 0.045 @ 3.375
  • Bearish weather over the weekend and bearish weather forecasts
  • G/EX conditions @ 72% vs 71% last week
  • China corn imports in May were down 14.7% from last May, but cumulative corn imports are up 15.9% from last year
  • July traded as low overnight as 3.2125 but has bounced back to very slight losses
  • Trend may have turned lower

SOYBEANS

  • July up 0.0025 @ 8.765, August down 0.01 @ 8.74, November down 0.0325 @ 8.76
  • Expectations for higher planted acreage on next week’s report
  • G/EX ratings came down to 70% vs 72% last week
  • Conflicting opinions on US-China trade relations
  • US dollar sharply lower, Brazilian real is higher
  • July traded as low overnight as 8.65 but quickly attracted buyers
  • Overbought stochastics

WHEAT

  • July CHI up 0.0225 @ 4.8725, July KC up 0.035 @ 4.3475, July MPLS down 0.0425 @ 5.145
  • Winter wheat conditions increased to 52% G/EX vs 50% last week, harvest at 29% vs 13% for the same week last year
  • Spring wheat G/EX ratings at 75% vs 81% last week
  • Russia expected to produce their 2nd largest crop ever this year
  • Winter wheat futures still consolidating near lows for the move
  • KC futures trying to make a bullish key reversal to change the technical trend
  • Spring wheat futures breaking back below recent consolidation

CATTLE

  • June lives up 0.25 @ 94.65, August lives up 2.50 @ 97.62, October lives up 1.75 @ 100.32
  • August feeders up 3.00 @ 134.75, September lives up 2.77 @ 135.85
  • Beef market trying to stabilize but cash cattle trend is still lower
  • Heavy weights are keeping production heavier than last year despite lower daily slaughter
  • Potential trade disruptions with China
  • August lives are trading above the 100-day moving average resistance for the first time since May 29
  • Trend may turn higher with a close above that resistance

HOGS

  • July up 0.25 @ 47.07, August up 1.15 @ 52.25, October up 0.75 @ 50.65
  • Cash index still moving lower
  • Exports to China may slow considerably if China tightens restrictions due to Covid
  • Frozen pork supplies at lowest levels since August of 2011
  • August hogs are trying to stabilize near contract lows

Author

Bryan Doherty

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