TFM Midday Update 6-23-2022


  • Jul corn down 25 @ 7.43
  • Corn futures are sharply lower following a broad sell-off in commodities related to recession fears after Jerome Powell called recession a “possibility”
  • The 7-day forecast is mostly dry across the US with milder temperatures expected to finish the month of June
  • China is implementing stricter Covid lockdown restrictions limiting demand for food, and September corn on the Dalian exchange fell to the equivalent of $10.73 a bushel, the lowest close in over three months
  • December corn has fallen below the 100-day moving average, and a close at this level would be a major break through support


  • Jul soybeans down 56 @ 15.97
  • The soy complex is being heavily affected by the sell-off in commodities today with all three products considerably lower, with meal showing the largest percentage loss
  • Crude oil is nearly a dollar lower while September palm oil is up over 5%, not enough to support soybean oil today
  • Milder temperatures forecast will be good for young row crops a week after enduring extreme heat, which is contributing towards lower prices
  • November soybeans are below their 100-day moving average after closing below it yesterday, breaking key support


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  • Jul wheat down 29 @ 9.48, Jul KC down 31 @ 10.09, & Jul MNPLS down 17 @ 10.89
  • Wheat is caught up in today’s sell-off as well but has been on downward path already following rain across the Canadian Prairies
  • While Canada is benefitting from favorable weather, spring wheat crops are off to a shaky start in the US with only a 59% good-to-excellent rating, the fourth lowest in the past 20 years
  • It remains unlikely that Ukraine will be able to export any grain as Russian missiles struck two primary port terminals over the weekend


  • Jun LC down 0.225 @ 135.900 & Aug FC up 1.450 @ 174.600
  • Live cattle are slightly lower while feeder cattle are higher benefitting from lower corn
  • Cash trade was light yesterday and 2 dollars lower in the South at 138, and light trade in the North around 239
  • The majority of cash trade will take place today and should be steady as the packer does not have many cattle contracted ahead
  • Choice cuts down 0.99 and select down 0.71
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/22: up 0.18 @ 165.21


  • Jul hogs down 1.550 @ 110.300 & Jul pork cutout down 2.225 @ 112.000
  • Hogs are lower this morning despite significant gains in cash and an increase in the cutout of 0.19 at yesterday’s close
  • Hog slaughter continues to run below a year ago with weights remaining higher, which is providing sufficient pork to meet demand
  • There may be enough hogs to market as the packer only has needed to pay up for a day or two to obtain enough supply for the week
  • National Direct Afternoon report has cash up 3.46
  • Hog slaughter projected at 472K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 6/23: up 0.29 @ 110.74


Amanda Brill

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