TFM Midday Update 6-23-2022

CORN

Jul corn down 25 @ 7.43
Corn futures are sharply lower following a broad sell-off in commodities related to recession fears after Jerome Powell called recession a “possibility”
The 7-day forecast is mostly dry across the US with milder temperatures expected to finish the month of June
China is implementing stricter Covid lockdown restrictions limiting demand for food, and September corn on the Dalian exchange fell to the equivalent of $10.73 a bushel, the lowest close in over three months
December corn has fallen below the 100-day moving average, and a close at this level would be a major break through support

Jul soybeans down 56 @ 15.97
The soy complex is being heavily affected by the sell-off in commodities today with all three products considerably lower, with meal showing the largest percentage loss
Crude oil is nearly a dollar lower while September palm oil is up over 5%, not enough to support soybean oil today
Milder temperatures forecast will be good for young row crops a week after enduring extreme heat, which is contributing towards lower prices
November soybeans are below their 100-day moving average after closing below it yesterday, breaking key support

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Jul wheat down 29 @ 9.48, Jul KC down 31 @ 10.09, & Jul MNPLS down 17 @ 10.89
Wheat is caught up in today’s sell-off as well but has been on downward path already following rain across the Canadian Prairies
While Canada is benefitting from favorable weather, spring wheat crops are off to a shaky start in the US with only a 59% good-to-excellent rating, the fourth lowest in the past 20 years
It remains unlikely that Ukraine will be able to export any grain as Russian missiles struck two primary port terminals over the weekend

Jun LC down 0.225 @ 135.900 & Aug FC up 1.450 @ 174.600
Live cattle are slightly lower while feeder cattle are higher benefitting from lower corn
Cash trade was light yesterday and 2 dollars lower in the South at 138, and light trade in the North around 239
The majority of cash trade will take place today and should be steady as the packer does not have many cattle contracted ahead
Choice cuts down 0.99 and select down 0.71
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/22: up 0.18 @ 165.21

Jul hogs down 1.550 @ 110.300 & Jul pork cutout down 2.225 @ 112.000
Hogs are lower this morning despite significant gains in cash and an increase in the cutout of 0.19 at yesterday’s close
Hog slaughter continues to run below a year ago with weights remaining higher, which is providing sufficient pork to meet demand
There may be enough hogs to market as the packer only has needed to pay up for a day or two to obtain enough supply for the week
National Direct Afternoon report has cash up 3.46
Hog slaughter projected at 472K
CME Lean Hog Index for 6/23: up 0.29 @ 110.74

Amanda Brill