TFM Midday Update 6-25-20

CORN

  • July down 0.08 @ 3.16, September down 0.085 @ 3.185, Dec down 0.0875 @ 3.2525
  • Weather over the next two weeks looks hot and wet which could boost yields
  • Oil futures are higher
  • Expectations for lower planted acreage on next week’s report as well as lower than year-ago stocks
  • US sold 461,700 tonnes of corn for the week ending June 18, up 29% from last week but down 11% from previous 4-week average
  • July corn is trading sharply below the 50-day moving average at its lowest prices since May 12
  • Trend appears to be rolling over

SOYBEANS

  • July down 0.075 @ 8.6325, August down 0.0725 @ 8.6025, November down 0.085 @ 8.6175
  • Greenhouse-like weather forecasts for the next two weeks
  • US dollar is higher, Brazilian real choppy
  • China trade uncertainty
  • US sold 601,900 tonnes of soybeans for the week ending June 18, up 12% from last week but down 10% from the previous 4-week average
  • July beans are trading below the 20-day moving average support level for the first time since June 2
  • Closes at these levels could turn trend lower

WHEAT

  • July CHI up 0.045 @ 4.8575, July KC down 0.01 @ 4.3025, July MPLS down 0.03 @ 5.1325
  • Mixed reports regarding early winter wheat harvest
  • Improving spring wheat conditions due to recent rains
  • Lowest Paris wheat futures since March
  • Higher Russian ruble helping to provide some support
  • US sold 518,700 tonnes of wheat for the week ending June 18
  • CHI and KC futures are still consolidating within recent ranges, CHI made an unsuccessful test of 10-day moving average resistance
  • MPLS futures tested and held lower Bollinger Band as support

CATTLE

  • June lives up 1.02 @ 94.32, August lives up 0.25 @ 96.60, October lives up 0.35 @ 99.97
  • August feeders up 1.25, September feeders up 0.90 @ 135.07
  • Cash cattle and beef values are still sliding lower
  • Restaurants reopening could help to improve demand
  • USDA and FDA indicated that there is no evidence that Covid can be transmitted through food or food packaging
  • August lives are still consolidating between the 50-day moving average support and the 100-day moving average resistance
  • August feeders are trading above the 100-day moving average resistance but still in an inside session

HOGS

  • July up 0.67 @ 46.60, August up 0.17 @ 51.42, October up 0.20 @ 50.42
  • Cash index slightly lower
  • Sharp jump in pork values so far this week
  • Slaughter lagging behind last week will keep pressuring the cash Index but will also help keep pork inventories from becoming too burdensome
  • Weights are down for the sixth week in a row
  • August hogs are still sharply oversold

Author

Bryan Doherty

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