TFM Midday Update 6-25-2024

CORN

Corn is trading sharply lower at midday and the December contract has now taken out yesterday’s low and is trading at the lowest levels since September of 2021 as forecasts continue to show incoming rains throughout the Corn Belt.
This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 209,931 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 22,098 metric tons are for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year and 187,833 metric tons are for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed the corn crops’ good to excellent rating falling by 3 points to 69% and compares to 50% at the same time last year. 97% of the corn crop has emerged, and 4% of the corn crop is silking.
With corn so oversold, much of the bearish news may be priced in at this point. With Friday’s acreage report approaching, the numbers would most likely need to be over the top bearish to illicit a significantly negative reaction. A neutral to slightly friendly report could result in a post report bounce.

Soybeans are trading sharply lower at midday along with corn after posting an impressive reversal off the lows yesterday. November futures have not taken out yesterday’s low as moisture in the forecast keep prices down. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower today as well.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed the soybean good to excellent rating falling by 3 points to 67% which was 1 point below the trade estimate and compares to 51% a year ago. 90% of the soybean crop has emerged and 8% is blooming.
The weakness in soybeans comes despite yesterday’s reported flash sale of 228,000 mt of soybean meal to the Philippines and the decline in crop ratings. Notably, the good to excellent ratings for Illinois fell by 2 points and by 10 points in Indiana. Ratings in Iowa remained steady.

All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday with Chicago wheat leading the way lower. Crop progress was mixed with good to excellent ratings being bullish for spring wheat and bearish for winter wheat. Trade continues to expect a large US wheat crop, and harvest is pressuring prices as well.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw spring wheat rated 71% good to excellent, which was 4 points below the average trade guess and down 5 points from last week. 18% of the crop is headed. In winter wheat, 52% of the crop is rated good to excellent, which was 3 points above the average trade guess and 3 points above last week. 40% of the winter crop is harvested.
World weather is currently threatening for the wheat crops with both Russia and Ukraine forecast to receive hot and dry weather in the coming months, potential flooding in the US Midwest, and Australia receiving more rain than expected.

Amanda Brill