TFM Midday Update 6-29-2023

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 5.5 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 4.9 mb for 23/24.
Weather still appears to be the main driver of the grain complex. Rain is forecasted for some of the drier areas of the central Midwest. However, grain markets are mixed at midday, suggesting that they are finding some support at these lower levels.
Yesterday’s announced purchase of US corn by Mexico is supportive but does once again bring up the question of their impending GMO ban on imports down the road.
A South Korean feed company is tendering for 130,000 mt of feed corn. Given the discount of South American exports vs US, as well as grain still flowing out of the Black Sea, it is unlikely to be sourced from here.

The USDA reported an increase of 8.4 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 0.6 mb for 23/24.
Soybean meal and oil are slightly higher at midday, which may be keeping soybean futures afloat. The Malaysian palm oil futures market is on holiday so there is no influence on US markets currently.
Reportedly, South American soybean meal offers dropped $18 per ton, compared with the previous day. This is sure to keep pressure on the US export market, which is still not performing well.
Right now, bulls and bears are battling between poor crop ratings, vs rain in the forecast and poor exports. Tomorrow’s reports could help provide some direction – the stocks number will likely be more of a factor and there is some anticipation that June 1 soybean stocks will be tighter than expected.

The USDA reported an increase of 5.7 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24.
US wheat futures appear to be probing for a bottom this morning. Some support may be coming from higher Matif wheat futures, which have a gap above the market that may yet be filled.
Offering resistance to US wheat is the fact that Canda revised their spring wheat seeding higher, to the largest acreage since 2001.
The US Ag Attaché in Australia is estimating their wheat crop at 29 mmt. That is a reduction of about 10 mmt from last year in anticipation of the El Nino drought conditions.

Brandon Doherty