TFM Midday Update 6-3-2022

CORN

Jul corn down 1 @ 7.29
Corn is struggling to stay positive today after mediocre net export sales of 185,800 mt for 21/22, up 23% from the previous week but down 52% from the prior 4-week average
Private exporters reported sales of 101,600 mt of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 21/22 marketing year
July corn is on track to end the week with a loss of nearly 50 cents after funds rushed to liquidate positions after Russia said they were willing to allow grain shipments to leave Ukraine
As Brazil begins their harvest of second crop corn, the USDA has said production will be record high at 4.57 billion bushels

Jul soybeans down 25 @ 17.04
Soybeans are lower after less than stellar net export sales of 111,600 mt for 21/22, a marketing-year low, down 60% from the previous week and 77% from the prior 4-week average
Argentina’s crop has been battered by drought and is now 94% harvested according to the Buenos Aires grain exchange
Both soybean meal and oil are lower this morning despite higher crude again today
With Russia’s oil production expected to drop even more after Europe agreed on a partial ban, demand for bean oil should continue to rise

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Jul wheat down 16 @ 10.43, Jul KC down 21 @ 11.23, & Jul MNPLS down 5 @ 11.94
Wheat is lower today as traders are uncertain about whether any wheat will be able to leave Ukraine, especially as Russian attacks intensify
Producers in North Dakota, northern Minnesota, and on the Canadian side of the border are getting a limited opportunity for planting as rain is not expected in the 7-day forecast
Unless the market is hit with bullish news, all 3 wheats are on track to end the week with large losses as funds exited their long positions following the Russia news
Australia is nearly done planting wheat with an all-time high 14.5 million hectares, while France’s wheat crop continues to decline for the fifth straight week

Jun LC up 0.100 @ 133.700 & Aug FC up 0.725 @ 173.675
Live cattle are modestly higher, and feeders are higher with August remaining soundly above the 50-day moving average as corn struggles to stay positive this morning
Net beef export sales of 17,900 mt for 2022 were down 11% from the previous week and down 17% from the prior 4-week average
Cash traded 2 dollars lower for both Northern dressed and Southern live cattle, with business basically finished for the week
The aggressive buying in feeder cattle may be showing tighter supply of calves which could impact cattle prices later in the year
Choice cuts down 0.77 and select up 0.72
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 6/2: up 0.12 @ 153.48

Jul hogs down 0.675 @ 112.975 & Jun pork cutout up 0.100 @ 114.600
Hogs are lower this morning following net pork export sales of 31,900 mt for 2022, down 13% from last week but up 15% from the prior 4-week average
Despite slightly lower cash, the cutout jumped another 2 dollars extending the gains for this week and showing the strong retail demand
Lower or quiet trade today would not be a surprise as the packer has already bought quite a few hogs this week and doesn’t need to be as aggressive in the cash market
National Direct Afternoon report has cash down 0.46
Hog slaughter projected at 475K
CME Lean Hog Index for 6/3: down 0.24 @ 104.91

Amanda Brill