TFM Midday Update 6-3-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday after trading either side of unchanged as it follows the volatility in wheat. The July contract has now broken through support at $4.45 and may challenge the April low of $4.35 3/4.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress Report which will also include the season’s first crop ratings. Weather has been mixed with heavy rainfall in parts of the country which could cause delays for the crop yet to be planted.
In Argentina, below normal precipitation is forecast over the next three months which will be beneficial for both the corn and soybean harvests. Argentina is now around 70% complete with its corn harvest.

Soybeans are trading lower today with heavy pressure from soybean oil which is down 2.30% in the July contract, and soybean meal is not helping either with small losses. The expectation is that today’s Crop Progress Report will show that soybean planting is advancing at a good clip.
Last week, the USDA pegged soybean planting progress at 68% which was 5 points above the average pace. Expectations for today’s report are between 84 and 85% completion as of this past Sunday. There is also discussion about how many acres will go to prevent plant with rain still in the forecast.
Soybean crush in the month of April has been estimated at 175.5 million bushels as analyst expect that the USDA will peg crush at a 7-month low. If realized, this would be down 13.9% from the 203.7 mb crushed in March and down 6.1% from April 2023.

Wheat is currently lower at midday but has been very volatile in today’s session with Chicago wheat at one point 19 cents higher in July before likely running into some selling pressure. All three classes are now trading lower on the day. Dry conditions in the Black Sea region continue to be a bullish factor.
In Russia, two large consultancies have reduced their estimates for the Russian wheat crop to between 78 and 82 mmt which is well below the USDA’s recent estimate of 88 mmt. Temperatures are hotter than normal, reaching up to 100 degrees and it is dry as well. Russian cash values have increased as production estimates fall.
Unlike the rest of the world, Australia is faring well with its weather, and as a result may see its wheat crop rise by as much as 5.7% thanks to the rains. Their total production is estimated at 27.4 mmt.

Amanda Brill