TFM Midday Update 6-30-20

CORN

  • July unchanged @ 3.2625, September down 0.0025 @ 3.285, December up 0.0025 @ 3.35
  • Warmer and increasingly drier forecasts for the next two weeks
  • Rain overnight in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Missouri
  • Crop conditions reported @ 73% G/EX, up 1% on the week
  • Short covering early in the session created bounce
  • July corn briefly traded through the 10 and 20-day moving average resistance levels but has fallen back below
  • Dec corn is testing the 10 and 50-day moving average support levels
  • Funds bought about 33,000 contracts yesterday

SOYBEANS

  • July up 0.0625 @ 8.7275, August up 0.035 @ 8.65, November up 0.04 @ 8.655
  • Forecasts beginning to dry out for the next two weeks
  • Crop conditions reported @ 71% G/EX, up 1% from last week
  • Chinese purchases for 2020 have only totaled 19% of the agreed-upon amount for the Phase One deal
  • July beans have bounced back above their 10-day moving average resistance level
  • November beans tested and held their 50-day moving average support level this morning
  • Funds bought about 2,000 contracts yesterday

WHEAT

  • July CHI up 0.0025 @ 4.8575, July KC up 0.0425 @ 4.33, July MPLS up 0.02 @ 4.99
  • Growing heat and dryness in the Black Sea region through the next 10-15 days
  • Estimates that Ukraine production could drop over 7% this year
  • Winter wheat harvest progress @ 41% complete vs 44% expected
  • Spring wheat conditions @ 69% G/EX vs 75% expected
  • Winter wheat futures are back above 10-day moving average resistance
  • Spring wheat futures trying to consolidate near recent lows, still oversold technically
  • Funds bought about 11,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday

CATTLE

  • June lives down 1.00 @ 94.00, August lives up 1.42 @ 97.90, October lives up 1.07 @ 101.12
  • August feeders up 1.55 @ 135.05, September feeders up 1.55 @ 135.82
  • Beef values trying to stabilize
  • Light cash trade yesterday, drifting lower from Friday’s prices
  • Mixed economic sentiment and uncertainty about restaurants’ ability to stay open
  • August lives at highest prices since June 2, trading above 100-day moving average resistance
  • August feeders are pushing to new highs for the month after close above technical resistance yesterday

HOGS

  • July down 0.17 @ 45.20, August up 0.50 @ 48.95, October up 0.87 @ 48.30
  • CME Lean Hog Index is unchanged for the day
  • Pork values made a disappointing close yesterday afternoon
  • Reports of new strain of swine flu discovered in China overnight
  • July hogs trading in extremely tight range
  • August hogs are beginning to push into overhead gap created Friday
  • Still oversold

Author

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Sam Seid

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