TFM Midday Update 7-1-20


  • July up 0.095 @ 3.48, September up 0.0825 @ 3.4975, December up 0.09 @ 3.595
  • Sharp drop yesterday in 2020 planted acreage
  • Heat and increasing dryness in 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts
  • With lower acreage number, US production should be more sensitive now to weather threats
  • Dec futures couldn’t close above the 100-day moving average resistance level yesterday but have pushed through this morning
  • Highest Dec trades today since March 30
  • Massive fund short position, likely bought back about 40,000 contracts yesterday


  • July up 0.09 @ 8.9325, August up 0.105 @ 8.8925, November up 0.13 @ 8.9525
  • Planted acreage only increased by about 300,000 acres from the March estimate
  • Weather forecasts starting to show a hot and dry pattern for the next two weeks
  • Nov beans made their highest close yesterday since March 11
  • Nov futures are pushing to new highs for the session
  • Gap on Nov chart at 9.035 made on March 9
  • Funds bought about 19,000 contracts of yesterday


  • Dec CHI up 0.015 @ 5.0075, Dec KC down 0.0175 @ 4.5025, Dec MPLS down 0.0275 @ 5.3075
  • All wheat acres came in a bit below the average trade guess yesterday, primarily due to lower spring wheat plantings
  • Higher wheat stocks than expected
  • USDA Foreign Agriculture is projecting a 4.4mmt decrease in Ukrainian winter wheat production and a possible drop in exports of 5.1mmt
  • Dec CHI wheat is making an inside session so far after yesterday’s highest close since June 17
  • Dec KC is trading in a two way range, trying to hold the 10-day moving average support
  • Spring wheat markets are setting back, though still inside Tuesday’s range
  • Funds bought 3,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday


  • August lives up 0.17 @ 96.45, October lives unchanged @ 99.72, December lives down 0.20 @ 103.45
  • August feeders down 1.85 @ 131.00, September feeders down 1.55 @ 131.82
  • Choice beef values are still slipping lower and may continue lower after the holiday weekend
  • Early week cash trade is down very slightly from Friday’s trade
  • Weekly slaughter on pace with the same week last year
  • August lives and feeders both tested the 100-day moving average resistance levels overnight
  • Lives are still holding long term support but the feeder futures are trading below their 50-day moving average support


  • July up 0.15 @ 45.32, August up 0.85 @ 49.87, October down 0.57 @ 48.77
  • Cash Index up very slightly this morning
  • Pork values are still moving lower as inventories build
  • China spot pig prices are still rallying, up 4.6% just for the week so far
  • August hogs have nearly filled their gap and stochastics are close to a bullish crossover
  • October hogs tested the 10-day moving average resistance but couldn’t break through


Bryan Doherty

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