TFM Midday Update 7-11-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Sep corn up 12 @ 6.45
Corn is higher and futures gapped higher last night as weather becomes a concern during pollination
Rains fell in North Dakota, Minnesota, and parts of Wisconsin, while the rest of the Midwest was hot and dry with the expectation of higher temperatures to come and loss of soil moisture
The CFTC data showed funds as sellers of 55,748 contracts reducing their net long position to 172,867 contracts
Ethanol exports during May more than doubled with year-to-date exports up 25% from last year

Sep soybeans up 22 @ 14.36
Gains across the entire soy complex this morning with soybeans gapping slightly higher
The same hot and dry weather forecast that is giving corn futures a boost is also impacting soybean futures
Exports have been poor, but biodiesel exports have been strong with May 21% higher than a year prior
Funds continued to sell soybeans but not as aggressively last week, cutting their net long position by 12,567 contracts to 33,564 contracts total, the smallest since December 2021

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Sep wheat down 20 @ 8.71, Sep KC down 21 @ 9.25, & Sep MNPLS down 12 @ 9.80
Wheat was initially higher early this morning but lost those gains despite corn and beans holding onto their gains as the forecast has less on an impact on wheat
Winter wheat harvest is well over halfway complete in the US, limiting hedge pressure by producers
USDA Supply and Demand report due for release July 12 – wheat carryout estimates currently have a wide variation
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of Chicago wheat last week selling 1,062 contracts and leaving them short 42 contracts

Aug LC up 0.575 @ 134.550 & Aug FC up 0.325 @ 172.025
Live cattle are higher, and feeders mostly lower as last week’s cash trade was 137 in the South, 1-2 dollars lower than last week’s average
Higher corn is putting pressure on feeder cattle
Friday’s CFTC showed funds as sellers reducing their net long position in live cattle to 51,689 contracts, and increasing their net short position in feeders to 4,135 contracts
Choice cuts down 0.18 and select down 0.73
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 7/8: up 5.49 @ 168.39

Jul hogs up 0.400 @ 113.225 & Jul pork cutout up 0.050 @ 112.800
The hog market is trading quietly today after cash dropped but the cutout gained 2.34
July futures go off the board this Friday with August holding over a 3-dollar discount to cash
Funds were sellers of hog futures decreasing their net long position to 15,207 contracts
National Direct Afternoon report declined 2.00
Hog slaughter projected at 467K
CME Lean Hog Index for 7/11: up 0.81 @ 110.97

Amanda Brill