TFM Midday Update 7-12-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Sep corn down 21 @ 6.16
Corn is lower as selling pressure takes over ahead of today’s Supply and Demand report and a more moderate weather forecast
The USDA report should hold few surprises as they are likely to leave yield unchanged from the June WASDE at 177.1 bpa
Following changes to acreage, the focus will turn to demand with the trade estimates looking for 1.486 bb of old crop ending stocks vs 1.485 bb previously
Weekly crop progress showed corn conditions at 64% good-to-excellent vs 65% expected and 64% last week, and 15% of the crop is silking vs 25% on average

Sep soybeans down 33 @ 13.90
The soy complex is lower along with everything else and lower crude is offering any support
Today’s WASDE report expects yields to be unchanged at 51.5 bpa, and the 21/22 carryout at 210 mb vs 205 mb last month
Crop progress saw soybean conditions fall to 62% good-to-excellent vs 64% expected and 63% last week, with Kentucky, Tennessee, Minnesota, and Missouri showing the biggest deterioration

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Sep wheat down 9 @ 8.48, Sep KC down 16 @ 8.99, & Sep MNPLS down 21 @ 9.43
Wheat has continued to fall as conditions improved to 70% good-to-excellent for spring wheat from 66% last week and 67% expected
Only 44% of the spring wheat crop is heading vs 77% on average
Winter wheat harvest is 63% complete vs 54% last week and 61% on average, but still slower than the 68% expected
The focus of today’s WASDE report will be the production report which will see the first objective estimate of the spring wheat crop

Aug LC up 0.050 @ 136.200 & Aug FC up 1.375 @ 178.775
Live cattle are lower while feeders are higher as a result of falling grain prices
Cash trade is still quiet for the week with asking prices starting out between 139 and 140 in the South and not yet established in the North
The packer has some cattle contracted but slaughter pace is brisk so they may need to be aggressive with purchases this week
Choice cuts up 0.25 and select up 1.15
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 7/11: up 3.82 @ 172.21

Jul hogs up 0.050 @ 113.200 & Jul pork cutout up 0.925 @ 114.225
Hog futures are moving quietly again this morning as cash continued to slide while the cutout rose by 0.40
August hogs hold a discount to July which is expiring soon giving August an opportunity to fill that gap
Slaughter pace is lagging, and estimated slaughter was revised to be lower by over 10k head
National Direct Afternoon report declined 1.47
Hog slaughter projected at 454K
CME Lean Hog Index for 7/12: up 0.80 @ 111.77

Amanda Brill