TFM Midday Update 7-12-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.



  • Sep corn down 21 @ 6.16
  • Corn is lower as selling pressure takes over ahead of today’s Supply and Demand report and a more moderate weather forecast
  • The USDA report should hold few surprises as they are likely to leave yield unchanged from the June WASDE at 177.1 bpa
  • Following changes to acreage, the focus will turn to demand with the trade estimates looking for 1.486 bb of old crop ending stocks vs 1.485 bb previously
  • Weekly crop progress showed corn conditions at 64% good-to-excellent vs 65% expected and 64% last week, and 15% of the crop is silking vs 25% on average


  • Sep soybeans down 33 @ 13.90
  • The soy complex is lower along with everything else and lower crude is offering any support
  • Today’s WASDE report expects yields to be unchanged at 51.5 bpa, and the 21/22 carryout at 210 mb vs 205 mb last month
  • Crop progress saw soybean conditions fall to 62% good-to-excellent vs 64% expected and 63% last week, with Kentucky, Tennessee, Minnesota, and Missouri showing the biggest deterioration


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  • Sep wheat down 9 @ 8.48, Sep KC down 16 @ 8.99, & Sep MNPLS down 21 @ 9.43
  • Wheat has continued to fall as conditions improved to 70% good-to-excellent for spring wheat from 66% last week and 67% expected
  • Only 44% of the spring wheat crop is heading vs 77% on average
  • Winter wheat harvest is 63% complete vs 54% last week and 61% on average, but still slower than the 68% expected
  • The focus of today’s WASDE report will be the production report which will see the first objective estimate of the spring wheat crop


  • Aug LC up 0.050 @ 136.200 & Aug FC up 1.375 @ 178.775
  • Live cattle are lower while feeders are higher as a result of falling grain prices
  • Cash trade is still quiet for the week with asking prices starting out between 139 and 140 in the South and not yet established in the North
  • The packer has some cattle contracted but slaughter pace is brisk so they may need to be aggressive with purchases this week
  • Choice cuts up 0.25 and select up 1.15
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 7/11: up 3.82 @ 172.21


  • Jul hogs up 0.050 @ 113.200 & Jul pork cutout up 0.925 @ 114.225
  • Hog futures are moving quietly again this morning as cash continued to slide while the cutout rose by 0.40
  • August hogs hold a discount to July which is expiring soon giving August an opportunity to fill that gap
  • Slaughter pace is lagging, and estimated slaughter was revised to be lower by over 10k head
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 1.47
  • Hog slaughter projected at 454K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 7/12: up 0.80 @ 111.77


Amanda Brill

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