TFM Midday Update 7-13-20


  • July down 0.075 @ 3.33, September down 0.08 @ 3.2925, December down 0.0825 @ 3.365
  • Widespread rain coverage lately
  • Hot temperatures and above-normal precipitation expected for the next two weeks
  • China bought 1.365mmt of corn from the US on Friday, the 2nd largest one-day purchase of US corn by China on record
  • China flooding may impact up to 8.72 acres of corn
  • Dec futures gapped lower overnight and are trading below the 20-day moving average level for the first time since June 30
  • Funds sold 35,000 contracts of corn on Friday


  • July down 0.04 @ 8.875, August down 0.10 @ 8.77, November down 0.12 @ 8.785
  • Rains over the past week have helped to stabilize crop conditions despite hot temperatures
  • Non-threatening weather forecasts for the next two weeks are attracting sellers
  • World ending stocks came in a bit lower than expected on Friday and China demand was revised higher
  • Nov beans gapped lower and are trading below their 20-day moving average level for the first time since June 30
  • Funds bought about 8,000 contracts of CHI wheat on Friday


  • Dec CHI wheat down 0.0325 @ 5.3575, Dec KC wheat down 0.015 @ 4.6275, Dec MPLS down 0.035 @ 5.3475
  • USDA still expecting record world ending stocks
  • US wheat production came in below expectations and KC carryout came in at a six-year low
  • China bought over 300,000 tonnes of US wheat on Friday including 130,000 tonnes of KC wheat
  • Dec CHI wheat tested the 100-day moving average support level early this morning
  • KC and MPLS futures tested and held their 20-day moving average support levels
  • Funds bought 8,000 contracts of CHI wheat on Friday


  • August lives down 0.02 @ 99.97, October lives down 0.10 @ 104.52, December lives up 0.07 @ 108.50
  • August feeders up 1.10 @ 136.85, September feeders up 0.75 @ 138.07
  • Choice beef values bounced higher on Friday from their lowest levels since October 2018
  • Cash trade on Friday steady to slightly higher than the previous week, 5-area average went up by 0.88
  • August lives tested the upper Bollinger Band resistance level this morning but have fallen back lower
  • August feeders are trading above their upper Bollinger Band resistance level, nearly overbought


  • July up 0.12 @ 46.10, August down 0.30 @ 49.57, October down 0.45 @ 49.40
  • Cash Index is higher, pork values look poised to break above their recent trading range
  • China pig prices are rallying quickly, and China imports are likely to stay strong
  • China will sell 20,000 tonnes of pork from state reserves today, adding to the 400,000 tonnes sold so far this year
  • August hogs failed to break through the 20-day moving average resistance level for the third session in a row


Bryan Doherty

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