TFM Midday Update 7-15-2026

CORN

The corn market is rebounding this morning as hot and dry weather across portions of the U.S. provides support, raising concerns about potential stress on the developing crop. December corn is up 8 cents at 4.68-1/2.
CONAB raised its estimate for Brazil’s total corn production to 141.73 million metric tons, up from 140.46 million last month and above the average trade estimate of 140.40 million. The agency also increased its estimate for the safrinha corn crop to 109.43 million metric tons, compared to 107.87 million in its previous report.
Brazil approved an increase in its ethanol blend mandate from 30% to 32%, a move expected to boost domestic corn demand. The higher blending requirement will remain in effect for 180 days and could be extended.
Ethanol production dropped to 306 million gallons, down from 321 the previous week while down 4% from the yearly average. Production was below expectations and the lowest in 10 weeks.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday as persistently hot temperatures across parts of the U.S. and escalating geopolitical tensions continue to provide support to the market. September soybeans are up 10-1/4 cents at 11.91-1/2. Soybeans and soybean meal are posting gains while soybean oil drops.
Extremely warm temperatures are expected to persist across the northern half of the Midwest and the eastern Corn Belt through the remainder of the week and into early next week. With limited precipitation in the forecast, crops in these areas are expected to experience increasing heat and moisture stress.
Escalating attacks between Russia and Ukraine are raising concerns that the conflict could intensify further as both sides continue targeting critical infrastructure. The heightened geopolitical uncertainty has provided underlying support for agricultural commodity markets this morning.
June NOPA crush is expected later this morning and the estimate is 202.8 million bushels, up 9.9% year over year but down 2.9% from May.
CONAB estimated the Brazil bean crop at 180.57 million tons, up from 180.25 last month and slightly below re-report estimates.

Wheat is trading sharply higher at midday as escalating geopolitical tensions continue to provide strong underlying support for the market. December Chicago wheat is up 30-1/4 cents at 6.90 while December Kansas City wheat is up 35-1/2 cents at 7.28.
Attacks on vessels related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to disrupt transit through the Kerch Strait and the Azov-Don Canal, limiting grain movement. As a result, analysts are lowering expectations for Russian wheat exports in July. Kommersant estimates exports will decline 13–20% from the previous month, while IKAR is forecasting a roughly 20% month-over-month decrease.
The French SRW crop is now anticipated at 32 million tons, down 4% year over year and 2% below the 5-year average

Lauren VandenLangenberg