TFM Midday Update 7-16-2025

CORN

Corn continues to push higher at midday for the third consecutive day, gaining strength as traders shift their focus away from Midwest weather concerns toward the potential for new demand driven by upcoming trade deals.
S. weather remains bearish for the next week, with rain expected across the central Corn Belt. However, temperatures are forecast to rise above normal in most crop areas — except for the far northern Plains — later in the week.
LSEG has lowered its corn production estimate for Ukraine by 1.8%, bringing the forecast down to 27.2 million tons.
Cordonnier raised his U.S. corn yield estimate by 2 BPA to 182, surpassing the USDA’s current estimate of 181. He also increased his forecast for Brazil’s corn crop by 2 mt to 134 million, compared to the USDA’s projection of 132 million. Cordonnier noted that Mato Grosso is experiencing record yields.
Ethanol production rose slightly to 320 million gallons, up from 319 million the previous week, though still down 2% year over year. The production process used approximately 108.5 million bushels of corn.

Soybeans are reversing yesterday’s losses in midday trade, with the soy complex continuing to post gains. The market is finding support following a White House announcement that a trade agreement has been finalized with Indonesia, which includes a significant commitment to U.S. agricultural purchases — including soy products. At midday, soybeans and soybean meal are trading higher, while soybean oil is under slight pressure.
USDA confirms the sale of 120,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in 2025/26.
Dr Cordonnier raised his U.S. soybean yield estimate to match USDA at 52.5 bpa.
The weather pattern across the core of the soybean belt is expected to remain active over the next week, with much-needed rainfall forecast for the dry areas of Indiana and Illinois.

Wheat markets are trading mixed at midday, continuing to struggle despite strength in the corn market.
Global wheat harvests are ongoing, adding to market supply and making it difficult for prices to extend gains during this period.
As of July 7th, 36% of France’s soft wheat crop has been harvested, with conditions steady at 68% rated good to excellent, according to FranceAgriMer.
A strong recovery in wheat production is expected across the EU in 2025, which will contribute to an increase in global supply.

Lauren VandenLangenberg