TFM Midday Update 7-16-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower at midday as the market sees profit-taking following this week’s rally. September corn is down 5-1/2 cents at $4.42, while December futures are 5 cents lower at $4.64-1/2.
USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed corn sales of 626,200 metric tons across the 2025/26 and 2026/27 marketing years for the week ending July 9. The total fell below the low end of analyst expectations.
Forecasts call for warm, dry conditions through the end of the week, followed by cooler temperatures and improving rainfall chances later this month. Traders will be watching closely to see whether those wetter forecasts materialize, as any shift toward a drier outlook could quickly add additional weather premium back into grain markets.

Soybean futures are trading modestly lower at midday as the market pulls back after testing the psychological $12.00 level. August soybeans are down 4-1/4 cents at $11.98, while November futures are 3-1/2 cents lower at $11.98-1/4.
USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed combined soybean sales of 1.96 million metric tons for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 marketing years during the week ending July 9. The total came in at the high end of trade expectations, supported by 1.19 million metric tons sold to China during the week.
China has been largely absent from recent USDA Export Sales reports, instead sourcing the bulk of its soybean needs from South America. Its return as a buyer of U.S. soybeans has provided a boost to futures, helping lift soybean prices back above the $12.00-per-bushel mark this week.

The wheat complex is mixed at midday as the market sees some profit-taking following this week’s rally. Looking at September contracts, Chicago wheat is unchanged at $6.77-1/2, Kansas City wheat is down 2 cents at $7.18, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 1-1/2 cents lower at $6.81-3/4.
Ukraine and Russia exchanged missile and drone attacks Thursday targeting vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, escalating tensions in a region that handles a significant share of Russian grain exports.
The renewed hostilities continue to add risk premium to wheat prices as traders grew more concerned about potential export disruptions. Shipping in the Sea of Azov also remained restricted Thursday following continued Ukrainian drone attacks, adding to uncertainty surrounding grain flows from the Black Sea region.

Matthew Lucas