TFM Midday Update 7-2-20

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Friday, July 3, 2020 in observance of Independence Day


  • July down 0.03 @ 3.4525, September down 0.0325 @ 3.47, December down 0.035 @ 3.5675
  • Forecasts for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days are showing below-normal rains and high temps for most of the corn belt
  • Corn prices should be increasingly sensitive to weather given lower acres reported this week
  • China has purchased at least 10 cargoes over the past two weeks after issuing more export quotas
  • US sold 361,000 tonnes of corn for the week ending June 25, down 22% from the previous week and down 32% from the previous 4-week average
  • Profit taking today after big bounces from last Friday’s closes
  • December corn closed above the upper Bollinger Band resistance level yesterday and has corrected back below this morning
  • Funds bought about 35,000 contracts yesterday


  • July down 0.015 @ 8.9225, August down 0.005 @ 8.91, November down 0.01 @ 8.98
  • Heat in forecasts is not overly supportive for beans though a lack of precipitation seen for the next two weeks is bullish
  • Daily crush pace in May hit new record of 5.79mbu, beating the record of 5.56mbu in 2018
  • US sold 241,700 tonnes (marketing year low) of beans for the week ending June 25, down 60% from the previous week and down 63% from the previous 4-week average
  • November beans are overbought according to stochastics and Bollinger Bands
  • Light selling pressure today has not pulled prices back into Bollinger Band range
  • Gap from early March at 9.035 has still not been totally filled
  • Funds bought about 11,000 contracts yesterday


  • Dec CHI down 0.06 @ 4.9975, Dec KC down 0.08 @ 4.47, Dec MPLS down 0.035 @ 5.2675
  • European and Russian weather looks nonthreatening as harvest ramps up
  • The US dollar and Russian ruble are both higher this morning
  • US sold 414,300 tonnes of wheat for the week ending June 25
  • CHI wheat tested the 20-day moving average for the second session in a row this morning and has since pulled back
  • KC futures have fallen back below the 10-day moving average support
  • MPLS futures are trading within their second inside-session in a row
  • Funds bought about 6,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday


  • August lives up 1.47 @ 98.77, October lives up 1.40 @ 102.07, December lives up 1.02 @ 105.52
  • August feeders up 1.32 @ 134.40, September feeders up 1.65 @ 135.67
  • Cash cattle markets are quiet, beef values are still falling lower
  • Surge in virus cases may slow the reopening of restaurants
  • Beef demand has likely peaked seasonally
  • August lives are surging off yesterday’s strong close and trading at highest levels since June 2
  • Possible breakout to the upside
  • August feeders are trading back above their 100-day moving average resistance but charts don’t look quite as strong as the lives


  • July down 0.02 @ 44.77, August up 0.12 @ 49.15, October down 0.37 @ 47.90
  • Pork values are still choppy and trying to stabilize
  • Cash hog Index is slightly higher
  • Weights are down for the seventh week in a row and slaughter is still lower than the same week last year
  • August hogs are still trading within Wednesday’s range
  • Gap from last week has still not been filled
  • Oversold stochastics


Bryan Doherty

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