TFM Midday Update 7-25-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher at midday but has been unable to take out yesterday’s high so far at 423 ¾. This week’s move higher is likely due to funds exiting a portion of their short position which recently reached record levels.
This week’s export sales for corn showed an increase of 13.0 mb for 23/24 and an increase of 29.3 mb for 24/25. This was within trade expectations but was down 24% from the previous week for 23/24 and down 29% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of 47.6 mb were above the 42.2 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates and destinations were primarily to Mexico, South Korea, and Japan.
Weather remains mostly favorable with above normal rain in the 10-day forecast, but temperatures are expected to rise sharply in the Corn Belt. The heat is expected to be the worst in Kansas, South Dakota, and southern Iowa.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday despite sluggish export sales. November futures have taken out yesterday’s high by half a cent but are still meeting resistance at the 20-day moving average. Soybean meal is trading steadily higher while soybean oil is mixed with the front months lower and back months higher.
The USDA reported private export sales of 264,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
Today’s export sales report saw an increase of 3.3 mb of soybean export sales in 23/24 and an increase of 30.5 mb for 24/25. This was within the range of estimates, but sales for 23/24 were down 61% from the previous week and 63% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of 13.5 mb were below the 15.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimate, and primary destinations were to the Netherlands, Mexico, and Indonesia.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way down as the winter wheat harvest continues and yields look promising. In Chicago wheat, prices are just 18 cents off their contract lows. Spring wheat crop ratings have been strong as well, adding to pressure.
Today’s export sales report showed an increase of 11.4 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25 which was slightly below the average trade guess and was down 47% from the previous week and down 46% from the prior 4-week average.
Last week’s export shipments of 10.0 mb were below the 16.0 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Nigeria, and Japan.

Amanda Brill