TFM Midday Update 7-29-21

CORN

  • Sept up 8 @ 5.57 & Dec up 8 @ 5.57
  • Week ending 7/22 – USDA reported net cancellation of 115,200 mt of export sales
  • Dryness continues to stress filling corn in Brazil
  • China’s internet corn price remains above $10 – still quiet on export side of things
  • Brazil corn still at risk for another frost tonight
  • Vessels loading from Argentina’s River may have to cut loads by 40% due to low water levels
  • Preliminary changes in futures open interest as of 7/28, up 4,510 contracts

SOYBEANS

  • Aug up 16 @ 14.48 & Nov up 16 @ 13.77
  • Week ending 7/22 – USDA reported net cancellation of 79,300 mt of export sales
  • Private exporters reported export sales of 132K mt to unknown for 2021/22
  • Beneficial US rains in Delta – not enough in northwest
  • Although many areas are going to see a relief in temps – moisture very limited
  • ASF in the Dominican could pressure prices moving forward – will monitor closely
  • Preliminary changes in futures open interest as of 7/28, down 5,348 contracts

WHEAT

  • Sept wheat up 17 @ 7.05, Sept KC up 17 @ 6.76, Sept MNPLS up 22 @ 9.26
  • Week ending 7/22 – USDA reported increase of 515,200 mt of export sales
  • Using current wheat tour numbers of yield of 24 could product SWR crop of 264 mb
  • USDA estimates overall production of spring wheat will plunge to 2002 levels
  • Drought continues to stress northern Plains & Canada
  • Wheat abandonment could be as large at 10% versus USDA’s 3%
  • Russian yields continue to disappoint, cut another 3mmt to 121 mmt
  • Preliminary changes in futures open interest as of 7/28, up 1,072 contracts SRW

CATTLE

  • Aug LC down .55 @ 122.52  &  Aug FC down 1.60 @ 158.57
  • Packers not increasing bids despite boxed beef higher
  • Concern over Covid-19 cases on the rise and long-term impact
  • Weekly export sales of 22,500 mt reported – down 11% from last wk
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 119K
  • Feeder Cattle cash index for July 27: up .39 @ 154.36

HOGS

  • Aug hogs up 1.47 @ 107.17 & Aug pork cutout up 1.47 @ 120.00
  • ASF in Dominican Republican pushes futures lower yesterday
  • Futures bouncing back today strong exports even though China still not buying
  • Weekly export sales of 38,500 mt – up 57% last week
  • Hog slaughter projected at 470K
  • Cash lean index for July 26: down .07 @ 112.05

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