TFM Midday Update 7-3-2023

CORN

Corn began higher in the overnight but has faded and is now relatively unchanged. Friday’s USDA report was bearish for corn after planted acres were forecast to be higher.
Very beneficial rains fell over some of the driest areas of the Corn Belt this weekend, but there was also some hail and rain damage in some fields.
Last week’s acreage number came in 2.1 million acres higher than in March which pressured futures, but the June 1 stocks number was lower than expected and down 155 mb from pre report estimates.
This afternoon’s Crop Progress report will let traders know whether or not the recent rains were enough to help the crop turn around. Good to excellent ratings will likely increase.

Soybeans are still riding the high from Friday’s very bullish USDA report but have faded slightly from overnight highs which hit the highest prices since February 24.
Friday’s NASS stocks and seeding report showed that soybean stocks were 16 mb below estimates and 172 mb below a year ago, but the huge bullish news was soybean acres falling 4 million below March intentions.
Soy products in China followed the lead of US markets and moved higher with soybean oil on the Dalian exchange rising 6%.
World veg oils have been moving significantly higher with Malaysian palm oil futures up 5.2% which is the highest level since March. US soybean oil futures are at their highest levels since December of last year.

Wheat has bounced around today, opening lower but now trading significantly higher in the KC wheat contract, while Chicago is a bit higher and Minn. wheat lower.
Friday’s USDA report showed wheat stocks to be lower than expected at 580 mb, 31 mb lower than expectations and what would be the lowest in 16 years.
The EU is weighing concessions to a Russian bank over the Black Sea grain deal in hopes that Russia will agree to extend the deal.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back a big chunk of their short position. They bought back 31,966 contracts, reducing their net short position to 52,168 contracts.

Amanda Brill