CORN
- Sept down 1 @ 5.48 & Dec down 1 @ 5.52
- US corn 64% good/excellent rating versus 71% last yr
- US corn dented 8% & silking 95%
- Brazil corn harvest at 58% – 70% this time last yr
- DTN Yield Tour – estimated corn yield at 188 for NE, 143 for SD, & 120 for ND
- Forecast mainly dry this week with rains falling in Eastern corn belt
- Preliminary changes in futures open interest as of 8/9, down 11,548 contracts
SOYBEANS
- Sept up 9 @ 13.50 & Nov up 9 @ 13.38
- US soybeans 60% good/excellent rating versus 74% last yr
- US soybeans blooming 91%
- Paraguay trucker strike & low rivers slow soy exports
- Brazil soymeal exports 2 mln T in July – record for month
- Current US crop rating third lowest in 12 years – matches 2017’s
- Preliminary changes in futures open interest as of 8/9, up 481 contracts
WHEAT
- Sept wheat up 14 @ 7.25, Sept KC up 10 @ 7.12, Sept MNPLS up 5 @ 9.13
- US spring wheat 11% good/excellent versus 69% last year
- US spring wheat harvest at 38% & winter wheat 95%
- Ukraine production raised to 30.5 m tons from 29.5
- Wheat exports stalled in French ports due to rains
- Record production expected to stay in USDA report – lower ending stocks predicted
- Preliminary changes in futures open interest as of 8/9, up 1.957 contracts SRW
CATTLE
- Oct LC up .92 @ 128.45 & Sept FC down .10 @ 159.20
- Anticipation for higher cash supporting futures
- Beef demand strong & packers need to step up or risk losing market shares
- Packers are anticipating demand slowing after Labor Day
- Cattle slaughter projected at 120K
- Feeder Cattle cash index for Aug 6: down .25 @ 156.30
HOGS
- Oct hogs down 3.00 @ 84.65 & Aug pork cutout down 1.20 @ 121.00
- Weakness in hogs seems to be emotion based not fundamental
- Oct hogs have price gap at 89.97 that needs to be filled
- Weaker trend in cutouts has trumped tighter supplies for now
- Hog slaughter projected at 470K
- Cash lean index for Aug 6: down .84 @ 111.21
Author
Amberlee Bratcher