TFM Midday Update 8-13-2024

CORN

Corn rebounded yesterday after the WASDE report but has since given those gains. This is likely due to the still rather large carryout number, as well as pressure from lower soybean and wheat futures.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 137,160 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 24/25 marketing year.
Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed corn condition remained steady at 67% good to excellent. Additionally, 94% of the crop is silking, 60% of the crop is in the dough stage, and 18% of the crop is dented.
News reports suggest that up to six million acres of Chinese crops were affected by flooding, however, it is currently unknown what the extent of the damage is.

Following a bearish USDA report yesterday, soybeans are sharply lower at midday, with the November contract breaking below the previous low of 964 ¼. Higher yield and acreage estimates have led to the largest carryout in six years, now projected at 560 million bushels.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year.
In yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, soybean conditions remained steady at 68% good to excellent. Additionally, 91% of the crop is blooming, and 72% of the crop is setting pods.
Palm and crude oil are lower this morning, which is pressuring soybean oil. Soybean meal is also down, with reports of high Chinese supply further weighing on the market. The declines in product values are offering little support to soybean futures.

Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report indicated that 93% of the USDA winter wheat crop has been harvested. However, spring wheat conditions declined by 2% from the previous week, with 72% now rated as good to excellent. Additionally, 18% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested.
Yesterday’s WASDE report unexpectedly lowered wheat ending stocks by 28 mb, along with a reduction in spring wheat production. This could provide some support to Minneapolis futures compared to Chicago and Kansas City.
After leaving a gap lower on charts yesterday, Paris milling wheat futures are trading lower again today, adding to pressure in the US market.
Said to be between $220 to $225 per mt FOB through December, Russian wheat export values continue to remain cheap on the global market.

Brandon Doherty