TFM Midday Update 8-14-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower today but rebounded slightly after hitting its recent low of 4.81 in December and was unable to take that level out.
Friday’s USDA report estimated corn yield 2.4 bpa lower than the previous guess and is now expecting the national yield at 175.1 bpa.
While the USDA’s drop in yield estimates was friendly, they also lowered US corn exports which put ending stocks over 2.0 bb, so the overall report reaction was bearish.
Rains fell throughout the Northern Plains and northern Midwest over the weekend, but the forecast is now showing a drier trend for the rest of August and maybe even into September.

Soybeans are trading higher along with both soybean meal and oil on the heels of Friday’s WASDE report which showed a very tight ending stocks number.
Soybeans are also getting support from a flash sale reported by private exporters this morning to unknown destinations of 416,000 mt of soybeans.
India, who is the world’s largest importer of vegetable oils, reportedly imported 59% more palm oil in June but their imports of soybean oil fell by 22%.
On Friday, the USDA estimated new crop ending stocks at 245 mb, a decline of 55 mb. Yields were also lowered by 1.1 bpa from July, but recent rains may have given yield numbers a boost.

Wheat is trading lower around midday despite tension further escalating between Russia and Ukraine. Friday’s report showed US winter wheat yields improving which may be adding pressure.
Over the weekend, Russia fired warning shots at a civilian vessel in the Black Sea and sent more drones to the port of Odesa. Russia has said that they would retaliate for the attacks on the Crimean bridge.
Russian FOB wheat offers have risen by $21 per metric ton over the past few weeks, and although they maintain the competitive advantage, US prices are becoming more competitive.
The WASDE report showed US ending stocks rising by 23 mb due to declines in demand, but other countries may see their ending stocks falling due to lower production. Argentina, Canada, India, and Australia are all having weather difficulties.

Amanda Brill