TFM Midday Update 8-14-2026

CORN

Corn is higher at midday, finding continued support from ongoing Black Sea export concerns and unfavorable EU crop conditions. December corn is up 7-3/4 cents to 4.79-1/2.
Corn’s weak performance yesterday can be attributed to CONAB’s larger Brazil production estimate.
Globally, Germany’s crop is expected to be down 14.2% year over year. French growers are estimating production at 7–8 million tons, down from 9.5 million tons last month, while Argentine farmers expect to plant 5.4% less corn this coming season.
Yesterday’s CPC report of a nearly 70% chance of the strongest El Niño in 75 years is supporting corn as well.
S. land under drought rose 1% to 29%, compared to just 4% at this time last year.

Soybeans are gaining support today from continued demand from China, along with SinoGrain’s announcement of a 360,000-ton auction of Chinese soybean reserves next week. The entire soy complex is gaining at midday. September soybeans are up 7-3/4 cents at 11.73-1/2.
USDA confirms the sale of 136,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China in 2026/27.
Rain is moving through eastern Nebraska, central Iowa, northern Illinois, and Indiana this morning. Flooding concerns in Indiana are gaining attention after 10–15 inches of rain fell north and east of Indianapolis, with more rain on the radar.
The Rosario Grain Exchange says Argentina’s soybean acreage is likely to expand this fall, as producers are expected to plant more soybeans due to leafhopper concerns in corn.

Wheat is sharply higher at midday as tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate. December Chicago wheat is up 20 cents at 6.88-1/4 while Kansas City December wheat is up 28-1/4 cents at 7.63-1/4.
Russia said it sees no reason to provide Ukraine with a temporary reprieve from attacks and that there will be no return to the previous grain corridor initiative. The comments follow reports that Ukraine sent Russia a letter proposing a truce.
Globally, Germany’s crop is expected to be down 11% year over year, while a drying trend in Australia prompted the Western Australian Grain Association to reduce its production estimate to 9 million tons, down from 9.5 million tons last month.
CONAB’s monthly update yesterday cut Brazil’s production estimate and is forecasting the country’s largest wheat imports in 20 years.

Lauren VandenLangenberg