TFM Midday Update 8-15-2024

CORN

In this week’s export sales report, the USDA reported an increase of 4.7 mb of corn export sales for the 23/24 marketing year and an increase of 31.5 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 40.7 mb exceeded the 38.4 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 2.250 bb.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service lowered their estimate of Ukrainian corn exports to just under 22 mb. Drought conditions may be taking a toll on crops in both Ukraine and southern Russia. Interestingly, this estimate is about 10% below the official USDA figure from Monday’s WASDE report.
The Rosario Grain Exchange increased their estimate of Argentine corn production by roughly 1.5 mmt to 49 mmt. This is more in line with the USDA at 50 mmt but is above the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange at 46.5 mmt.

Today’s weekly export sales report showed an increase of 8.1 mb in soybean export sales for the 23/24 marketing year and an increase of 49.4 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week at 15.8 mb fell below the 16.8 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 1.700 bb.
NOPA crush data will be released later this morning for the month of July, which is expected to be a record. The average trade guess comes in at 182 mb, which would be above the 176 mb crushed in June, and the 173.3 mb from July of last year.
Good rains are moving across the central US today, which will likely be reflected in reductions to drought readings. However, once this system moves through, the extended outlook shows little moisture for the remainder of August.

In today’s weekly Export Sales report, the USDA reported an increase of 12.5 mb in wheat export sales for the 24/25 marketing year and a decrease of 2.5 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 18.4 mb exceeded the 16.1 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 825 mb.
Paris milling wheat futures have yet to stop the bleeding, with September currently trading lower for the fourth consecutive session. The US Dollar Index is also higher this morning. All three classes of US wheat appear to be somewhat ignoring these bearish factors, as they have traded both sides of unchanged this morning.
September Chicago wheat approached the 40-day moving average (551) overnight before backing off. It has not traded above this average since early June. This may act as near-term resistance, but a rally above this level would look technically strong.

Brandon Doherty