TFM Midday Update 8-17-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher near midday, but prices remain near their lowest levels of the year despite the forecast for hot and dry conditions until next week.
Dryness is forecast all along the Corn Belt and Midwest over the next 7 days, but the heat will be most intense in the western Plains while the eastern Corn Belt should not experience the extreme heat as much.
Export sales were nothing to write home about with 9.2 mb reported for old crop corn, up 16% from the prior 4-week average and new crop sales at 27.7 mb. 17.5 mb of corn was shipped, and 51 mb more needs to be shipped in the next 3 weeks to meet the USDA’s estimate.
US ethanol stocks rose by 2.4% to 23.435 m bbl, but analysts were expecting 22.83. Plant production was 1.069 m b/d compared to the survey average of 1.035.

Soybeans are trading higher, while soybean meal continues its downward trend and soybean oil continues higher with demand for biofuels rising.
This morning, the USDA reported 3.4 mb of export sales for old crop soybeans which was down 42% from the prior 4-week average. 51.7 mb of new crop sales were reported, and shipments were 16 mb. 30 mb more of soybeans need to be shipped within the next 3 weeks to meet the USDA’s estimates.
Brazilian food and fuel processor Caramuru Alimentos has started selling soybean-based ethanol at one of its plants in Brazil.
Soybean oil prices are getting a boost from higher palm oil on talk of increased imports from India, helping to firm soybean oil’s percent of crush value to 6-month highs, while also adding support to soybeans.

Wheat is trading lower but has backed off its earlier morning lows as trade ignores the concerns of Russian attacks on Ukrainian port cities.
Regarding the attacks in the Black Sea region, the markets seem to only react on the day that grain silos are destroyed, or agricultural infrastructure is destroyed. By the next day, markets are content to trend lower.
Ukraine’s August grain exports out of the Danube River are reported at 820,000 metric tons so far as the river becomes Ukraine’s main export route.
A container ship has left the port of Odesa in the Black Sea despite Russia’s threats to attack vessels after Ukraine announced their own humanitarian corridor to release the cargo ships that have been stuck.

Amanda Brill