TFM Midday Update 8-18-2020 - Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson

CORN

September down 0.02 @ 3.29, December down 0.0125 @ 3.435, March down 0.0075 @ 3.56
Crop Progress report showed G/EX @ 69% vs 71% last week and 62% on average
Iowa ratings were down 10% due to storm damage
Forecasts seem to suggest that yield estimates can come down in future WASDE reports
Dec futures have pulled back within their Bollinger Band range
Stochastics are still a bit overbought
Funds bought 22,000 contracts yesterday

September unchanged @ 9.125, November down 0.0075 @ 9.145, January down 0.005 @ 9.205
Crop Progress report showed G/EX @ 72% vs 74% last week and 60% on average
Crop tour looking for strong yields particularly for Ohio and South Dakota
Hot and dry forecasts are supportive for beans, especially through the next week or so
Strong global demand for palm oil
November beans have pulled back within their Bollinger Band range
Inside session so far today
Funds bought 15,000 contracts yesterday

September CHI down 0.1075 @ 5.0575, September KC down 0.10 @ 4.275, September MPLS down 0.0175 @ 5.0375
Spring wheat conditions improved to 70% G/EX vs 69% last week and 66% on average
US dollar made lowest prices since May 2018 overnight
Ukraine will be limiting new crop exports to 17.5mmt vs 20.5mmt in 19/20 crop year
IKAR raised the Russian production estimate again, this time to 82mmt
CHI futures have fallen back below the 50-day moving average support, KC futures have fallen back below the 20-day moving average support
MPLS contracts are holding the 20-day moving average support levels
Funds bought 9,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday

August lives up 0.07 @ 106.97, October lives down 0.05 @ 109.82, December lives unchanged @ 112.57
August feeders up 0.27 @ 143.00, September feeders up 0.90 @ 145.30
Beef values have been trending sharply higher due to Labor Day demand
Slaughter is running ahead of last week so far and weights have begun to pull back
October lives haven’t done much to confirm yesterday’s bearish key reversals but haven’t disregarded the reversal either
September feeders have bounced back above the 20-day moving average but have not tested the 10-day moving average resistance

October down 1.87 @ 51.65, December down 1.65 @ 53.30, February down 1.05 @ 61.05
Cash hogs are still rallying, pork values made a slight pullback at yesterday’s close
China is auctioning 10,000 tonnes of pork from state reserves this week
October hogs have fallen back below the 10 and 100-day moving average support levels
A close below those would be the first since August 6
December hogs are testing he 10-day moving average support as well, and a close below would be the first since August 4

Bryan Doherty