TFM Midday Update 8-18-2020

CORN

  • September down 0.02 @ 3.29, December down 0.0125 @ 3.435, March down 0.0075 @ 3.56
  • Crop Progress report showed G/EX @ 69% vs 71% last week and 62% on average
  • Iowa ratings were down 10% due to storm damage
  • Forecasts seem to suggest that yield estimates can come down in future WASDE reports
  • Dec futures have pulled back within their Bollinger Band range
  • Stochastics are still a bit overbought
  • Funds bought 22,000 contracts yesterday

SOYBEANS

  • September unchanged @ 9.125, November down 0.0075 @ 9.145, January down 0.005 @ 9.205
  • Crop Progress report showed G/EX @ 72% vs 74% last week and 60% on average
  • Crop tour looking for strong yields particularly for Ohio and South Dakota
  • Hot and dry forecasts are supportive for beans, especially through the next week or so
  • Strong global demand for palm oil
  • November beans have pulled back within their Bollinger Band range
  • Inside session so far today
  • Funds bought 15,000 contracts yesterday

WHEAT

  • September CHI down 0.1075 @ 5.0575, September KC down 0.10 @ 4.275, September MPLS down 0.0175 @ 5.0375
  • Spring wheat conditions improved to 70% G/EX vs 69% last week and 66% on average
  • US dollar made lowest prices since May 2018 overnight
  • Ukraine will be limiting new crop exports to 17.5mmt vs 20.5mmt in 19/20 crop year
  • IKAR raised the Russian production estimate again, this time to 82mmt
  • CHI futures have fallen back below the 50-day moving average support, KC futures have fallen back below the 20-day moving average support
  • MPLS contracts are holding the 20-day moving average support levels
  • Funds bought 9,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday

CATTLE

  • August lives up 0.07 @ 106.97, October lives down 0.05 @ 109.82, December lives unchanged @ 112.57
  • August feeders up 0.27 @ 143.00, September feeders up 0.90 @ 145.30
  • Beef values have been trending sharply higher due to Labor Day demand
  • Slaughter is running ahead of last week so far and weights have begun to pull back
  • October lives haven’t done much to confirm yesterday’s bearish key reversals but haven’t disregarded the reversal either
  • September feeders have bounced back above the 20-day moving average but have not tested the 10-day moving average resistance

HOGS

  • October down 1.87 @ 51.65, December down 1.65 @ 53.30, February down 1.05 @ 61.05
  • Cash hogs are still rallying, pork values made a slight pullback at yesterday’s close
  • China is auctioning 10,000 tonnes of pork from state reserves this week
  • October hogs have fallen back below the 10 and 100-day moving average support levels
  • A close below those would be the first since August 6
  • December hogs are testing he 10-day moving average support as well, and a close below would be the first since August 4

Author

Bryan Doherty

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