TFM Midday Update 8-20-2020

CORN

September down 0.03 @ 3.22, December down 0.0275 @ 3.37, March down 0.0275 @ 3.50
China corn prices approaching 5-year highs
Possible decline in Ukraine production
US sold 61,6100 tonnes of corn for the week ending August 13, down 84% from last week and down 63% from the previous 4-week average
Rally last week was mostly due to fund short covering
Volume has also declined sharply after making recent highs suggesting a lack of new buying interest
December futures have fallen back below the 50 and 100-day moving average support levels
Stochastics have made a bearish crossover
Funds sold 6,000 contracts yesterday

September down 0.095 @ 9.03, November down 0.0875 @ 9.0525, January down 0.0825 @ 9.1175
Weather forecasts are looking a little less threatening
Below-normal temperatures should minimize impact of dryness in many areas
Surprise return to trade talks between US and China
US had net cancellations of 12,700 tonnes of beans for the week ending August 13, the worst week so far of the current marketing year
November futures retested their 200-day moving average support level this morning and have held it so far
Stochastics are still overbought despite pressure this morning
Funds bought 3,000 contracts yesterday

December CHI down 0.005 @ 5.215, December KC down 0.015 @ 4.475, December MPLS down 0.015 @ 5.2225
Recovery move in US dollar
Jordan cancelled their tender this week, but Algeria bought 560,000 tonnes of wheat and Pakistan has issued import permits for 1.58mmt
Talk that UK harvest could fall by 33% or the lowest since the early 1980s
US sold 523,000 tonnes of wheat for the week ending August 13, up 42% from last week but down 8% from the previous 4-week average
CHI futures are trading back and forth between the 50-day moving average support and the 100-day moving average resistance
KC and MPLS futures are trading between their 20-day moving average support and the 50-day moving average resistance
Funds bought 3,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday

August lives down 0.22 @ 107.25, October lives down 0.55 @ 110.27, December lives down 0.57 @ 113.22
August feeders down 0.05 @ 143.50, September feeders down 0.10 @ 145.90
Choice beef values are at their highest levels in over two months
Cash cattle trend is higher as well
Tomorrow’s Cattle On Feed report expected to show the start of a recovery from plant closures earlier in the year
October lives and September feeders are trading in an inside session so far today
Live cattle trend still looks higher, feeder cattle trend looks mostly sideways

October up 2.95 to 55.50, December up 2.20 @ 55.77, February up 0.82 @ 61.97
Cash Index is still trending higher
Pork values are choppy to higher
Reports that China and the US will resume trade talks was viewed as very supportive
October futures gapped higher this morning
October trading at highest levels since May 8
Prices have jumped back into overbought levels

Bryan Doherty