TFM Midday Update 8-20-21

CORN

  • Sept down 8 @ 5.42 @ Dec down 8 @ 5.42
  • Argentina is the only competition, US positioned well from demand aspect
  • US dollar index is at 10 month highs
  • Over the next 7-10 days, most of the Midwest and northern Plains should see some rains
  • China’s corn price has declined 11 cents overnight to the equivalent of 10.04 per bushel
  • Funds remain net long an estimated 180,000 contracts

SOYBEANS

  • Sept down 13 @ 13.10 & Nov down 13 @ 13.07
  • We have had 11 consecutive days of new sales announcements to China and unknown – despite this the market has lost value
  • China imported 7.88mmt of soybean from Brazil in July – down from last year
  • Crude oil is at 3 month lows – pressuring the soy complex
  • Rains expected in the northern Plains and western Corn Belt should help soybeans there to preserve yields
  • Some ports in China have been closed due to the spread of the Delta variant of Covid – impacting shipping and logistics

WHEAT

  • Sept wheat down 7 @ 7.21, Sept KC down 6 @ 7.09, Sept MNPLS down 2 @ 9.15
  • Wheat is at a 5 year low in global ending stocks
  • US wheat is still overpriced compared to other markets
  • The US is expected to export 800-900 million bushels of wheat in 21/22
  • The French wheat harvest is reported to be 91% complete – reports of poor quality due to heavy rains during harvest
  • Some concern over Argentinian wheat due to dryness over the coming weeks
  • China still in demand of wheat following floods

CATTLE

  • Oct LC up .775 @ 128.925 & Sept FC up .10 @ 158.375
  • Cattle on Feed report today is expected to be friendly
  • Increase of the spread of the Delta virus variant could impact food demand
  • Beef cutouts closed yesterday with prices up 1.55 in choice, and up 6.61 in select
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
  • Feeder cattle cash index for Aug 19: up .18 @ 155.42

HOGS

  • Oct hogs up 1.975 @ 88.90 & Oct pork cutout up 1.65 @ 102.575
  • Hog weights continue to remain on the light side
  • Lighter weights will require more hogs to fill the needed tonnage
  • Pork cutout index up .32 @ 121.03
  • Lean hog index for Aug 19 down .99 @ 108.18
  • Hog slaughter projected at 471K

Author

Brandon Doherty

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