TFM Midday Update 8-20-21 - Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson

CORN

Sept down 8 @ 5.42 @ Dec down 8 @ 5.42
Argentina is the only competition, US positioned well from demand aspect
US dollar index is at 10 month highs
Over the next 7-10 days, most of the Midwest and northern Plains should see some rains
China’s corn price has declined 11 cents overnight to the equivalent of 10.04 per bushel
Funds remain net long an estimated 180,000 contracts

Sept down 13 @ 13.10 & Nov down 13 @ 13.07
We have had 11 consecutive days of new sales announcements to China and unknown – despite this the market has lost value
China imported 7.88mmt of soybean from Brazil in July – down from last year
Crude oil is at 3 month lows – pressuring the soy complex
Rains expected in the northern Plains and western Corn Belt should help soybeans there to preserve yields
Some ports in China have been closed due to the spread of the Delta variant of Covid – impacting shipping and logistics

Sept wheat down 7 @ 7.21, Sept KC down 6 @ 7.09, Sept MNPLS down 2 @ 9.15
Wheat is at a 5 year low in global ending stocks
US wheat is still overpriced compared to other markets
The US is expected to export 800-900 million bushels of wheat in 21/22
The French wheat harvest is reported to be 91% complete – reports of poor quality due to heavy rains during harvest
Some concern over Argentinian wheat due to dryness over the coming weeks
China still in demand of wheat following floods

Oct LC up .775 @ 128.925 & Sept FC up .10 @ 158.375
Cattle on Feed report today is expected to be friendly
Increase of the spread of the Delta virus variant could impact food demand
Beef cutouts closed yesterday with prices up 1.55 in choice, and up 6.61 in select
Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
Feeder cattle cash index for Aug 19: up .18 @ 155.42

Brandon Doherty