TFM Midday Update 8-22-2025

CORN

Corn continues to see some weakness at midday, pressured by reports from the ongoing crop tour, which is uncovering record-high yield estimates in key production states like Iowa and Minnesota. The market remains focused on concerns that demand may struggle to absorb the large volumes expected to be harvested this fall, adding further weight to prices.
USDA confirms the following sales of U.S corn for export in 2025/2026, 119,769 tons to Costa Rica and 140,452 tons to Spain.
The percentage of U.S. corn acreage under drought conditions rose slightly this week, up 1% to a total of 5%, compared to 7% during the same period last year. However, forecasts call for precipitation over the next five days across Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, which could bring relief to some of the driest regions.
The International Grains Council raised their global production estimates for corn by 23 million tons to 1.299 billion tons, on a larger than expected U.S. and South American crop.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday, with strength seen across soybeans and soybean meal. The market is finding support following news that Pakistan has signed an agreement to purchase 1.1 million tons of U.S. soybeans, shifting a portion of its buying from South America to the United States.
The ongoing crop tour across the U.S. has uncovered several disease-related concerns in soybean fields. Sudden Death Syndrome (SDS) and white mold were among the most notable issues observed, raising red flags about potential yield impacts. In addition, drought conditions are expanding, with the percentage of U.S. soybean acres under drought rising by 6% over the past week, further adding to market uncertainty.
The lack of buying from China continues to be a main concern for the soybean market, as the trade war continues.

Wheat futures are mixed at midday with pressure from rising global production estimates and the continued influx of new wheat into the market as harvest progresses. The expanding supply outlook is weighing on prices, with traders closely watching both domestic and international developments.
U.S. winter wheat acres under drought conditions rose by 2% this week, now totaling 31%, though still well below the 45% reported at this time last year. In contrast, drought coverage on hard red spring (HRS) wheat declined by 2%. Looking ahead, significant precipitation is forecast across the Southern Plains over the next week, which could bring much-needed relief to dry areas.
Ukraine’s Economic Ministry has revised its wheat crop estimate to 21 million metric tons, down slightly from 21.7 million tons last season.
The International Grains Council raised its global wheat production estimate by 3 million tons to 811 million tons, reflecting a stronger supply outlook. Meanwhile, Argentina’s crop conditions improved significantly, with 73% rated good to excellent — up 11% from last week — boosting expectations for the South American harvest.

Tanner Wilson