TFM Midday Update 8-23-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Sep corn up 25 @ 6.59
  • Corn is trading higher this morning after the USDA dropped their crop rating by 2% to 55% good-to-excellent, the fourth lowest rating since 2000
  • The 6-to-10-day forecast shows better chances of rain from the southwestern Plains to the Ohio River Valley, as well as the Central Corn Belt
  • Yesterday’s report from the USDA showed a slight expansion in the spread between the cost of corn and the value of corn products in Iowa, a good indication of corn demand


  • Sep soybeans up 37 @ 15.65
  • Soybeans are lower this morning after the USDA lowered its good-to-excellent rating for the bean crop by 1% to 57% good-to-excellent with major drops in Arkansas and Kansas
  • Front month Sep continues to lead the way higher with very incentivizing crush margins making demand for cash soybeans high
  • The heatwave and drought in China could be seriously affecting their production and in turn may be leading to more Chinese soybean purchases from the US

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  • Sep wheat up 25 @ 7.95, Sep KC up 28 @ 8.93, & Sep MNPLS up 20 @ 9.09
  • All three wheat products are higher again today as trade is becoming more aware of the recent droughts in Europe and China that could lead to very tight global supplies
  • In China, the largest freshwater lake, Poyang Lake, is down to roughly 1/4 of its normal size
  • One third of winter wheat has been harvested and the USDA’s crop ratings stayed the same at 64% good-to-excellent
  • Wheat sold off on the news that Ukraine would be allowed to export grain, but it has been over a month and still no wheat has left the country


  • Aug LC up 0.225 @ 141.400 Aug FC down 0.475 @ 180.925
  • Feeder cattle are down significantly with higher corn, and in turn are pulling live cattle lower
  • Feedlots still may have the upper hand as show lists are smaller giving the packers less to choose from, and cash asking prices in the South are starting at 145
  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders showed funds as net buyers of 16,964 contracts increasing their net long position to 6,036 contracts
  • Choice cuts up 0.24 and select up 0.42
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 8/22: up 1.45 @ 180.66


  • Oct hogs up 1.925 @ 95.850 & Oct pork cutout up 1.775 @ 106.400
  • Hogs are rallying this morning after a large jump in cash and rise in the cutout by 0.46
  • There may be follow through of increased cash again today as packers need hogs to fill increased chain speed
  • The drought and extreme heat in China may result in them importing more US pork
  • National Direct Afternoon report rose by 8.55
  • Hog slaughter projected at 475K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 8/23: down 0.31 @ 119.98


Amanda Brill

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