TFM Midday Update 8-26-2020


  • September down 0.0075 @ 3.40, December down 0.005 @ 3.54, March down 0.005 @ 3.6575
  • Crop conditions deteriorated the most in 8 years on Monday’s update and this is likely to continue with heat and dryness in many areas so far this week
  • The market is not sure if rains seen to the end of the week will provide much crop relief
  • ProFarmer Crop Tour estimates leave ending stocks at similar levels to the last four years
  • Sharp drop in open interest lately is indicative of a short-covering rally
  • December futures are trading in an inside session after yesterday’s gap higher
  • Prices have fallen back within the Bollinger Band range but are still overbought
  • Funds bought 30,000 contracts yesterday


  • September up 0.0475 @ 9.185, November up 0.0325 @ 9.235, January up 0.0275 @ 9.30
  • Most are expecting a record crop from Brazil this year
  • Heat and dryness has likely impacted the soybean crop more than the corn crop
  • Questions whether rains later this week will provide ample relief
  • Positive trade tone between US and China
  • November beans made their highest close yesterday since mid-February
  • Stochastics are overbought
  • Funds bought 15,000 contracts yesterday


  • December CHI up 0.01 @ 5.365, December KC up 0.0025 @ 4.5575, December MPLS down 0.03 @ 5.2725
  • Egypt bought 530,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia yesterday
  • Taiwan is now tendering for US milling wheat
  • Positive US-China trade relations
  • Dropping open interest suggests fund short-covering
  • CHI futures are trading in an inside session below their 200-day moving average resistance level
  • KC and MPLS futures are also trading inside of yesterday’s ranges, though are testing and holding their 50-day moving average resistance
  • Funds bought 6,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday


  • August lives down 0.42 @ 105.07, October lives down 0.40 @ 108.37, December lives up 0.02 @ 111.72
  • August feeders up 0.42 @ 142.67, September feeders up 0.37 @ 143.45
  • Cash trade so far this week has been steady to slightly lower than last week
  • Beef values have made higher closes 14 sessions in a row
  • Pasture conditions are deteriorating quickly
  • October live cattle have fallen back below the 20-day moving average support
  • September feeders are holding to lower Bollinger Band support level


  • October down 0.60 @ 55.35, December down 0.52 @ 56.15, February down 0.20 @ 62.57
  • Carcass cutout values closed above year-ago levels yesterday for the first time since May 30
  • Aggressive buying from China
  • Supportive Cold Storage report this week
  • October hogs are making bearish key reversal action so far today
  • Stochastics are overbought
  • 10-day moving average near 53.80 is nearby support


Bryan Doherty

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