TFM Midday Update 8-28-2026

CORN

Corn is slightly higher at midday, supported by growing optimism surrounding demand. December corn is up 3-1/4 cents at 5.36-3/4.
A Reuters report yesterday provided additional support to the U.S. corn market, stating that China may be looking for a reduction in tariffs before purchasing U.S. feed grains following significant weather stress to crops in the Northern China Plains. This is notable because the current U.S. balance sheet does not have significant Chinese demand built into it.
French crop conditions declined another 1% this week, with just 28% of crops rated good to excellent compared to 62% a year ago, marking the lowest rating on record. France is also expected to announce a significant farmer aid package in the coming days.
U.S. areas experiencing drought conditions declined 1% this week to 27%, compared to just 5% a year ago. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal across the Midwest over the next 10 days, with a mostly dry pattern forecast through late next week.

Soybeans are firmly higher at midday, supported by strength in soybean oil and continued buying interest across the market. The entire soy complex is higher at midday. September soybeans are up 11-1/2 cents at 12.68 while November is up 14 cents at 12.82-1/4.
Soybean oil is strong at midday following reports that the White House is considering adding 500 million gallons to the 2027 biofuel quotas to offset an increase in small refinery exemptions. Additional support is coming from expectations that El Niño could impact Asian palm oil production.
Most U.S. soybean-growing areas will see warm and dry conditions through the end of next week, with showers largely limited to the northern Midwest and northern Plains. While the heat and dry weather could create some stress in areas already needing moisture, some regions are expected to benefit from the drier conditions as they work to recover from recent wetness.
SinoGrain in China is expected to auction another 68,000 tons of soybean reserves next week.

Wheat markets are notably higher at midday as continued global tensions provide support to the market. December Chicago wheat is up 23-1/2 cents at 7.84-1/2 while December Kansas City wheat is up 21-1/2 cents at 8.43-3/4.
Overnight, Ukraine attacked Russia’s fifth-largest refinery, while continued Russian drone attacks have disrupted operations at the port of Odesa.
Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister stated that winter wheat planting acreage is expected to decline, while dry conditions are slowing the pace of seeding.
Another bullish factor for the wheat market is worsening drought conditions across the southern Plains, with persistent heat in Oklahoma and Texas and little chance of meaningful moisture over the next 10 days. HRS wheat areas under drought conditions jumped 17% this week to 80%, compared to just 13% a year ago.

Lauren VandenLangenberg