TFM Midday Update 8-29-2025

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, September 1, in Observance of Labor Day

CORN

Corn markets are trading higher at midday, supported by strong export demand and continued favorable weather conditions aiding the crop’s development as the season progresses.
U.S. corn exports to the EU for the 2024/25 season have reached a 35-year high, driven by ongoing drought stress impacting the EU crop.
U.S. corn acreage under drought conditions remains unchanged at 5%, down from 8% at the same time last year.
LSEG has raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2024/25 corn crop to 137.4 million metric tons, up 4% from the previous forecast, citing increased planted acreage. Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn harvest is now just over 97% complete.

Soybeans are trading lower at midday, pressured by continued weakness in the soybean oil market and light trading volume ahead of the upcoming Labor Day weekend.
Additional pressure on the market comes as China continues to source soybeans from countries other than the U.S., with increased purchases from Argentina and Uruguay.
Stats Canada soybean production this season is expected to drop 7.3% compared to last year.
U.S. soybeans under drought conditions rose by 2% to 11%, just below last year’s 12%. Persistent dryness in the eastern Corn Belt is drawing trader attention, with forecasts expecting the trend to continue into next week.

Wheat is trading mixed at midday but still seeing some support by strong export commitments for the 2025/26 season, which are currently 23% ahead of this time last year.
Stats Canada released wheat production estimates at 35.548 million metric tons, just below the pre-report expectation of 35.6 million. Spring wheat production was pegged at 25.992 million tons, up from 25.351 million last year.
Winter wheat acreage under drought conditions held steady at 31% last week, though significant rains across the Southern Plains this week are expected to ease those numbers. Meanwhile, HRS wheat under drought declined by 1 point to 13%.
Russian export prices have fallen to a one-month low due to harvest pressure, while EU prices are approaching contract lows.

Lauren VandenLangenberg