TFM Midday Update 8-30-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Monday, September 2, in Observance of Labor Day

CORN

Corn is trading higher at midday and has only backed slightly off its earlier morning highs. Support has come from good export sales yesterday, which were a marketing year high at 59 million bushels. Only 12 contracts of September corn were tendered for delivery.
Ethanol production was supportive as well and has run at a pace higher than the USDA’s expectations. This is proof that domestic demand has been firm, and now export demand is beginning to pick up at a time where a large US crop is about to be harvested.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has estimated that the country would produce 46.5 mmt of corn, which is below the USDA’s latest estimate but well above last year’s 37.0 mmt. Harvest is estimated at 99.3% complete.

Soybeans are trading mixed at midday and are significantly off their earlier morning highs. November soybeans were up 15 cents at 1007 ¾ but are now lower on the day. Futures are still set to post a gain of around 20 cents on the week if these prices hold.
Soybean meal is bear spread this morning with losses in the October outweighing those in the deferred months, while soybean oil is lower across the board as it follows the selloff in crude oil. Crush margins remain profitable, which has driven domestic demand.
In Brazil, soybean production in the key growing state of Parana is expected to jump by 20% to 23.33 mmt due to better yields. Planting for the next season is expected to begin in September.

Wheat is mixed at midday with Chicago and Minneapolis wheat trading higher while KC is unchanged to lower. Paris milling wheat was up overnight which is likely lending support, while quality concerns over spring wheat in North Dakota are also supportive.
Yesterday, the USDA reported weekly wheat export sales as of August 22, increased 19.6 mb for the 24/25 marketing year and decreased 1.3 mb for 25/26. Shipments of 21.2 mb that week exceeded the 16.0 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 825 mb.
The Canadian wheat crop is being estimated at 34.4 mmt for 2024 which would be 4.3% above last year’s production according to Statistics Canada. A Bloomberg survey estimated production at 33.8 mmt.

Amanda Brill